| 研究概要 |
During FY2013, we constructed a 22-region, 32-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model includes 12 countries currently negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), plus China, Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, the rest of ASEAN (Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar), India, Russia, EU, and the rest of the world.Preliminary simulation experiments show that Japan's economic welfare would be 1.6-2.1% higher in 2030 under three TPP- track scenarios compared with the baseline, assuming that rice is excluded from trade liberalization. While output of many manufacturing and services sectors are predicted to increase, output of wheat, sugar, livestock, meats and dairy products contracts considerably.
If we assume that productivity of Japan's agricultural sectors increases by 1% per annum starting in 2016, resulting from its policy reform, then the extent of output contraction of agricultural and processed food sectors in Japan would be reduced significantly except for dairy products. Output changes in some of the products, such as meats and other crops, are predicted to become positive, indicating the beneficial effects of agricultural policy reforms. These results were presented at the 126th Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
First, concerning the model construction and policy simulations, we have achieved more than what we had planned during the first year. We have constructed a multi-region, multi-sector dynamic CGE model, and we have conducted a number of policy simulations. Second, we have made a satisfactory progress on the political economy analysis of the TPP, identify-ing economic costs and benefits, as well as political costs and benefits of joining the TPP. Third, with regard to the relationship between agricultural policy reforms and productivity change, we have found out that there would be an insufficient number of observations to estimate it using an econometric method. Thus, we have decided to conduct a literature survey of other countries that have carried out agricultural policy reforms.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
In addition to tariff liberalization, we plan to estimates the effects of trade facilitation and reductions in non- tariff barriers on services trade. Furthermore, we will construct FTA/EPA sequences, including the TPP, Regional Compre-hensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), which are reasonable estimates of the future sequences of region-wide FTAs in the Asia-Pacific. We will continue to examine the effects of TPP-related scenarios on economic welfare and sectoral adjustments in Japan. We plan to present our studies at the 89th Annual Conf-erence of the Western Economic Association International in Denver, USA, and at the 14th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association in Bangkok, Thailand. The presented papers will be revised and submitted to refereed journals.
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