| 研究課題/領域番号 |
25285076
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| 研究機関 | 大阪大学 |
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研究代表者 |
利 博友 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40283460)
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| 研究分担者 |
大槻 恒裕 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40397633)
板倉 健 名古屋市立大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (90405217)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| キーワード | TPP / 環太平洋経済連携協定 / 農政改革 / FTA / CGE分析 |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
During FY2014, we extended the dynamic CGE model we constructed in FY2013 to incorporate trade facilitation and non- tariff barriers on services trade. In addition, we included several plausible sequences of FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region. For example, one of the scenarios assumes that the TPP will gradually increase the member countries to 16 in 2020 and to 19 in 2024. We also included a scenario in which the TPP and other region-wide FTAs will lead to an increasein productivity.
Japan's economic welfare is expected to increase by 0.8-0.9% in 2030 under the TPP and enlarged TPP scenarios. This contrasts with 0.2% for the United States and 2.7-2.9% for Vietnam. When China is excluded from the TPP, its economic welfare is projected to decrease by 0.2%, but if it joins the TPP, its welfare is predicted to increase by 0.6%. When the TPP and enlarged TPP are assumed to induce productivity growth, the magnitudes of welfare gains for the TPP members would increase significantly. When we assume that productivity of Japan's agricultural sectors increases from 1% to 1.5%
a year starting in 2018, the extent of output contraction of agricultural and processed food sectors in Japan would be reduced considerably except for dairy products. Output changes in some of the products, such as meats, other crops and other food products, are predicted to become positive. These results were presented at the 89th Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International and at the 14th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
First, concerning the model construction and policy simulations, we have achieved what we had planned during the firsttwo years of this project. We have constructed a 22-region, 32-sector dynamic CGE model, and we have conducted a number of policy simulations under several plausible sequences of region-wide FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, we have made a satisfactory progress on the political economy analysis of the TPP, identifying economic costs and benefits, as well as political costs and benefits of joining the TPP. Third, concerning the relationship between agricultural policy reforms and productivity change, we have found out that there are an insufficient number of observations to estimate it using an econometric method. Thus, we have been conducting a literature survey of other countries that have carried out agricultural policy reforms. In addition, based on the literature review, we have added a policy scenario in which
import and export penetrations resulting from trade liberalization would lead to an increase in productivity. Overall, we feel that we have made satisfactory progress.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
In the final year, we plan to examine more closely the sectoral effects of the TPP, enlarged TPP and other FTA/EPA scenarios. While the aggregate welfare and GDP results are important, the most useful results are at the industry level,where structural adjustments and resource reallocations occur in response to changes in trade policy. Because sectoral interests have exerted significant influence on TPP negotiations, the sectoral results would be most important for political economy considerations. We plan to examine not only sectoral results of Japan, but also those of the United States, China, Korea and ASEAN countries. In addition, we will consider the effects of reductions in compliance costs associated with rules of origin. As bilateral FTAs/EPAs are consolidated, compliance costs are projected to fall, lead- ing to a reduction in real trade cost. We plan to present our studies at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Melbourne, Australia, at the Conference on Korea and the World Economy in Beijing, China, and at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in San Francisco, USA. The presented papers will be revised and submitted to refereed journals.
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| 次年度使用額が生じた理由 |
研究代表者が2015年3月16日～23日の間入院したため、2015年3月下旬に予定していた国内出張を中止しなければならなかったことが理由である。
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| 次年度使用額の使用計画 |
平成27年度は、積極的に国際学会等で研究成果を報告する計画を立てている。そのため、平成26年度の残額は旅費に使用する予定である。
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