| 研究実績の概要 |
During FY2015, we updated the baseline scenario of our model and conducted simulation experiments for the following five policy scenarios: (1) The member countries of the TPP increase from 12 in 2016 to 13 (+ Korea) in 2018 and 16 (+ Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand) in 2021. (2) Same sequencing as (1) until 2023, plus the enlargement of the TPP to 19 economies (+ China, India and Taiwan) in 2024. (3) Productivity of agricultural sectors in Japan increases gradually from 1% a year in 2018 to 1.5% a year in 2030, resulting from Japan's agricultural policy reforms. (4) Productivity of manufacturing sectors increases from 1% a year to 1.1% a year for the TPP members. (5) The creation of the TPP will result in reductions in compliance costs associated with rules of origin (ROOs). The same TPP enlargement sequencing is used in (2)-(5).
Under the first two policy scenarios, Japan's economic welfare is projected to increase by 0.6-0.7% in 2030. Under scenario 3, its economic welfare is expected to increase by 0.9%. In addition, the extent of output contraction of agri-cultural and processed food sectors in Japan would be reduced considerably, particularly in grains and meats. Under scenario 4, the welfare gain of Japan is projected to increase significantly to 2.6%. Under scenario 5, it would boost welfare gains of Japan and other member economies even further. These results were presented at the 18th Annual Confer- ence on Global Economic Analysis, the XIVth Conference on Korea and the World Economy, and at the 2016 ASSA/AEA annual meetings.
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