| 研究課題/領域番号 |
25670294
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| 研究種目 |
挑戦的萌芽研究
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| 研究機関 | 東京大学 |
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研究代表者 |
スチュアート ギルモー 東京大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 助教 (20608913)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
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| キーワード | 疫学 / HIV/AIDS / 数理モデル |
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| 研究概要 |
Successfully completed an analysis of prevalence of HIV in 32 sub-Saharan African countries over 11 years, with estimates of proportion of men and women aged 15-49 who have ever been tested for HIV, are aware of their HIV status, and used a condom at last sex. This behavioral and testing data is essential for modeling HIV infection risk.
Completed a review of HIV and tuberculosis coinfection models, in order to identify the most appropriate modeling strategy for HIV/TB coinfection.
Collaborated with colleagues in Canada to develop a model of risk compensation in recipients of male circumcision in Uganda. This model is important to establish the potential effectiveness of male circumcision as a prevention strategy for HIV, and the role of circumcision in changes to risk factors that would affect HIV transmission.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
Have completed the process of estimating risk behaviors and prevalence of the major diseases. Have received training in geo-spatial analysis for the incorporation of Bayesian statistical methods into future models. Infrastructure for model-building has been prepared.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
In the next year, results of the initial estimates of HIV prevalence and risk behavior will be submitted for publication. This model of HIV prevalence and risk behavior will be updated with Bayesian small area analysis to give a full map of the prevalence and management of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. Simultaneously, a basic model of HIV/TB coinfection will be developed and tested, and several possible interventions assessed for their effect on future trends in prevalence and incidence of both diseases.
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| 次年度の研究費の使用計画 |
Travel expenses came to one day less than expected, and so one day of per diem was left over at the end of the year.
This 5359 yen will be incorporated into travel expenses for this fiscal year.
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