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2014 年度 実施状況報告書

Large-Scale Location Mining for Multi-dimensional Risk Factors Discovery: A study for Road Accident Prevention

研究課題

研究課題/領域番号 26540166
研究機関東京大学

研究代表者

ホラノン ティーラユット  東京大学, 空間情報科学研究センター, 客員研究員 (00598287)

研究分担者 関本 義秀  東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (60356087)
研究期間 (年度) 2014-04-01 – 2016-03-31
キーワードTraffic accidents / land use / GLM / zero-inflated models / risk factors
研究実績の概要

Summary of research achievements
- We successfully setup a collaborative research with our counterparts.- We successfully setup our cloud server and develop a script to process the data use for this research.- We concluded the data structure, sampling scheme, and identify possible risk factors use for this research.- We have studied and explored several analysis models and get our first results to determine the factors that highly related to traffic accidents. Our findings include:
Results of GLMs (Poisson regression, NB regression), and zero-inflated models (ZIP, ZINB) of traffic accident in weekday/weekend and holiday in Tokyo using Land use data such as Densely inhabited area map, urban area map, land use map, elementary school counts POI data including number of banks,convenience store and shops, department stores, entertainment businesses, hospitals, high schools and universities, sport facilities, railway stations, tourist attractions Road data such as traffic volume, traffic speed, number of intersections, length of roads Note: the parameters have been selected individually for each model to get the best result Comparison between nested and non-nested models found the significance of zero-inflated models, and NB regression to have superiority over Poisson regression.The same data analysis for 32 other prefectures namely Hokkaido, Aomori, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki, Gunma, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, Niigata, Ishikawa, Fukui, Nagano, Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie, Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara, Wakayama, Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Tokushima, Kagawa, Kochi.

現在までの達成度 (区分)
現在までの達成度 (区分)

2: おおむね順調に進展している

理由

We have submitted our first research finding to CUPUM2015 (Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management) conference. CUPUM is a well-known peer-review international conference focusing on Urban Computing and the paper was accepted. The conference will be held at MIT, Boston, USA during July 7-10, 2015.

今後の研究の推進方策

Our plan for FY 2015, we will continue develop and test our analysis model to confirm the best solution (model adjustment) and find the most appropriated risk factors for road accident. After attending the international conference in July, we are planing to test the proposed model in various scenarios. We will also expand our model to test in other prefectures outside greater Tokyo. We are expected to submit our final results to a well-known international journal and writing a report at the end.

次年度使用額が生じた理由

Last fiscal year, we were focusing on the data exploration and model development to find the appropriated parameters for traffic risk factors. We spent less personal expenditure since the model have been testing only the pilot area. We expected to extend the proposed model for the entire Japan in the next fiscal year.

次年度使用額の使用計画

The budget will be used for travel expense to attend the international conference this year (in July) also it will be used for hiring more research students to complete the second half of this research.

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公開日: 2016-05-27  

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