2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Prediction of solar cycle activity and investigation of its impact on climate

Planned Research

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Project Area	Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction as Science and Social Infrastructure
Project/Area Number	15H05816
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Review Section	Science and Engineering
Research Institution	Kyoto University
Principal Investigator	Yoden Shigeo 京都大学, 理学研究科, 教授 (30167027)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	櫻井隆国立天文台, 太陽観測科学プロジェクト, 名誉教授 (40114491) 今田晋亮名古屋大学, 宇宙地球環境研究所, 講師 (40547965) 浅井歩京都大学, 理学研究科, 准教授 (50390620) 上野悟京都大学, 理学研究科, 助教 (70303807) 宮原ひろ子武蔵野美術大学, 造形学部, 准教授 (00532681) 吉田康平気象庁気象研究所, 気候研究部, 研究官 (10636038)
Project Period (FY)	2015-06-29 – 2020-03-31
Keywords	太陽物理学 / 地球システム科学 / 太陽活動変動 / 宇宙線変動 / 気候変動
Outline of Final Research Achievements	Spatio-temporal variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle activity were clarified, by analyzing precise solar activity data from the ground and "Hinode" satellite observations. The amplitude of the next solar cycle was predicted to be 10% weaker than the current cycle, by developing a new type of numerical prediction model. Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model was newly developed by introducing the processes associated with high-energy particles from the sun or galactic cosmic rays, and verified by the reproduction of a specific event in the past. With this model, we have participated in an international coupled model intercomparison project to contribute for world climate research activities. Also, some concrete situations of climate impacts during a grand solar minimum period were discovered by the latest paleoclimatological sample analysis.
Free Research Field	地球惑星科学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	我が国が誇る最先端の精密観測データを駆使して太陽周期活動の時空間変動を明らかにし、次期太陽周期活動を予測する数値モデルを従来にない発想で開発して実際に予測した点は学術的意義が高い。また、太陽活動変動の気候影響過程を新たに導入した気象研究所地球システムモデルを開発し、過去の典型事例を再現する検証実験を済ませ、モデル相互比較国際プロジェクトに参画して世界の気候変動評価に貢献した点は、学術面のみならず社会的意義においても高いものがある。