1990 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Reliability Analysis and Management of Water Resources System with Probabilistic Matrix Approach
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
|Allocation Type||Single-year Grants|
|Research Institution||Gifu. University|
KOJIRI Toshiharu Univ. of Gifu Civil Eng. Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (00026353)
OKA Fusao Univ. of Gifu Civil Eng. Professor, 工学部, 教授 (10111923)
|Project Period (FY)
1989 – 1990
|Keywords||Basin simulation / Probabilistic matrix / Shift operation / Vector optimization / Conflict analysis / Reliability / Fuzzy inference|
1. Basin simulation with matrix method
In order to estimate the rainfall and runーoff process in whole river basin, rainfall was simulated through multiーpoint and simultaneous matrix method of oneーorder Marcov chain. Introducing linear regression model for longーterm and storage function model for shortーterm, discharge sequences are calculated and conditional probability matrixes of discharge were gained.
2. Probabilistic evaluation of water quantity and quality
Water resources system including storage reservoir is consisting of several units such as division, confluence, reservoir, intake, purification, usage and so on. The transition processes were formulated in time and space based on probabilistic matrix methods. Probabilistic evaluation was taken at any reference point through shift operation and it's inverse method.
3. Multiーobjective evaluation of water resources system
Water quantity and quality were evaluated at reference point considering reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. These criteria were applied to the real water resources systems in the cases of the linear type, the lumping purification type and the reーuse type. Then the vector optimization technique is employed to find the best solution for decision making of planning.
4. Optimal planning of site, scale and schedule of water resources systems
When drought or flood control projects are planned, there are several conflicts between governments and the residents who live on the project site, or the residents in the upstream area and in the down stream area. Introducing the conflict analysis which is one of metaーgame theories, the game was formulated then the rational solution was gained under the conditional constraints of different preferences for players and changing preference in time.
Research Products (16results)