1995 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Estimating Fertillity and Infant Mortality in Pre-industrial Japan through Micro-simulation
Project/Area Number |
06630023
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
Research Field |
Economic statistics
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Research Institution | KONAN WOMEN'S JUNIOR COLLEGE |
Principal Investigator |
KINOSHITA Futoshi KONAN WOMEN'S JUNIOR COLLEGE, LIBERAL ARTS, PROFESSOR, 教養学科, 教授 (50234323)
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Project Period (FY) |
1994 – 1995
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Keywords | Historical demography / Micro-simulation / Shumon aratame-cho / Reproductive process / Infant mortality / Natural fertility / Fecundability / Seasonal fluctuation |
Research Abstract |
This project attempts to clarify the degree to which births were under-registered in the shumon aratame-cho (SAC) of the Tokugawa period. This has been a serious problem in Japanese historical demography because it prevents accurate etimation of basic demographic indices such as fertility and infant mortality. I solving this problem, this project employs a micro-similation approarch. This approarch has several advantages over macro-simulation. The most importantis that in micro-simulation, we can take into account relatively easily such important factors as seasonal fluctuation of births and monthly death rates of infants. The model for reproductive process and its computer program used in the project are based on the researhes of the Institute of Population Problems and of Potter and Bongaarts. For input data for the simulation, I use data from the Tokugawa period anywhere information is available, but data of the Meiji and the Taisho periods are used when information is not available. The result of the simulation reveals that the degree of under-registration of births in the SAC ranges from 82 to 88 per cent, depending on the levels of infant mortality, and thus 12 to 18 per cent of births were never recorded. This leads us to conclude that birth rates calculated from the SAC need to be multiplied by 1.15 to 1.22 in order to obtain accurate estimation of fertility levels among Tokugawa peasants.
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