1998 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIMBER TRADE AND FOREST PROTECTION
| Project/Area Number |
08041066
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | Field Research |
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| Research Field |
林学
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| Research Institution | Miyazaki University |
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Principal Investigator |
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi Miyazaki Univ., Dept.of Ag.& For.Econ., Professor, 農学部, 教授 (30174832)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HAVNES R. 国立大西洋北西部森林研究所, 経済研究室, 科長
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi Miyazaki Univ., Dept.of Ag.& For.Econ., Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (10264350)
TERAOKA Yukio Kagoshima Univ., Dept.of Forest Management, Lecturor, 農学部, 講師 (40264105)
KATO Takashi Forestry and Forest Product Research Institute, Director, 林業経営部, 科長
OZAKI Tohru Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Professor, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (00000208)
HAYNES Richard USDA,Forest Service, Program Manager
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| Project Period (FY) |
1996 – 1998
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| Keywords | Forest Economics / Timber Trade / Environmental Policy / Lumber Processing / Japanese Market / Tropical Forests / Market Equilibrium Model / Econometric Model |
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| Research Abstract |
This study has focused on impacts, resulting from environmental regulations, on forest product supply to be traded among Japan, North America, Central America, South America and Oceania to seek a balanced situation for forest products trade and environmental protection. We conducted forest sector analysis as well as forest sector modeling. It has been revealed that a price of the Japanese timber may not be high enough to cover the total production costs. Silvicultural costs in Japan are found to be almost five to ten times greater than those in the main timber exporting countries. Only considering forest resources physically, it would be possible for Japan to be self-sufficient in supplying lumber to its domestic demand.Regarding forest sector modeling, we conclude that future efforts should : (a) develop spatial, intertemporal optimization models with multiple market levels ; (b) examine constraints on adjustment flexibility in the intertemporal welfare maximization format ; (c) develop methods that allow joint simulation of market and resource models retaining their respective detail ; (d) directly embrace the "messiness" of real world market/resource conditions ; and (e) be explicit about the uncertainty inherent in policy scenarios and projections. Using the Japanese forest sector model, our simulation analysis indicates that reduction of the US log import does not have much influence on domestic lumber production, instead accelerates lumber import to Japan, which mainly can be observed in Kanto.
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