1998 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Safety Reliability Analysis Considering Accidents Originating from Human Error on Preventive Design of Marine Man-Machine Systems
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
|Allocation Type||Single-year Grants |
|Research Institution||KYUSHU UNIVERSITY |
FUKUCHI Nobuyoshi Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Professor -> 九州大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (80039677)
KIHARA Kazuyuki Mitsubishi Heavy Industry CO.Shipbuilding and Ocean Development Headquarters, Te, 海洋事業部, 技術部長
KOBAYASHI Yoshihiro Kumamoto Institute of Technology, Professor, 構造工学科, 教授 (00234857)
THOMAS George Osaka Prefecture University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 講師 (40243919)
HU Changhong Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Research Associate, 工学研究科, 助手 (20274532)
SHINODA Takeshi Kyushu University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学研究科, 助教授 (80235548)
|Project Period (FY)
1997 – 1998
|Keywords||Reliability analysis / Human error / Man-Machine system / Incidence probability / Fault tree analysis / Fuzzy theory / Thermal stress / Protected equipment|
The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the safety and reliability analysis considering accidents originating from human error on the functional design of marine man-machine systems.
The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree(FT) ^<1)>. Next the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Lastly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce t
he risk of accident probability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.
The second part describes un-measurability of some events and the measurable reliability of accident countermeasures. The event tree analysis(ETA) is used to evaluate reliability of the functional designs of marine systems. Generally, the ETA estimates the incidence probability of an accident by considering the incidence probability of every duster event leading to the accident. The exact estimation of duster event related to human errors is generally difficult to find, since those include several un-measurable factors, and the results could be highly misleading. In this part, a method of reliability analysis considering the measurability of some duster events like human error is proposed. This estimation process of measurable reliability is based on the firm degree of belief of the occurred event and an evaluation by a fuzzy integral using Belief measure or Plausibility measure.
The third part is a characteristic study on thermal stress and countermeasures for human body in marine exposure working space. In order to grasp the relation between the heat stress of human body and the thermal environmental factors, a formula for heat stress is established with a view of calculating the quantity of heat storage using the heat balance model of human body. This formula that is consisted of temperature, wind velocity, metabolic heat and clothes heat resistance, can be defined to be the critical working hours to lay down the limit time when a variation of body foundation temperature exceeds the fixed threshold value. The necessity of several kinds of compensated equipment for the protection of workers against severe exposure environment is evaluated by use of present judgment method. Less
Research Products (10 results)