2002 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LAND-USE CHANGE FOR BROADER MUNICIPAL REGIONS
| Project/Area Number |
12460104
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Irrigation, drainage and rural engineering/Rural planning
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| Research Institution | KYOTO UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
KOBAYASHI Taro KYOTO UNIVERSITY, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, PROFESSOR, 地球環境学堂, 教授 (20026602)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SAIZEN Izuru KYOTO UNIVERSITY, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, INSTRUCTOR, 地球環境学堂, 助手 (80346098)
MIZUNO Kei KYOTO UNIVERSITY, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, INSTRUCTOR, 地球環境学堂, 助手 (10260613)
MORI Yoshiaki KYOTO UNIVERSITY, ACADEMIC CENTER FOR COMPUTING AND MEDIA STUDIES, ASSOC. PROFESSOR, 地球環境学堂, 助教授 (60026474)
MORITA Hidenori KAGAWA UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, INSTRUCTOR, 工学部, 助手 (60239663)
HOSHINO Satoshi KOBE UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF AGRICULT, ASSOC. PROFESSOR, 農学部, 助教授 (60192738)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2002
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| Keywords | THE BRODER MUNICIPAL REGION / LAND-USE CHANGE / THE DIGITAL NATIONAL LAND INFORMATION / MULTI-LEVF,L MODEL / LOGIT MODEL / SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL / LAND=USE CONVERTION MODEL |
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| Research Abstract |
(1) A model of land-use conversion from agriculture and forestry to residential use in the period of 1987- 1997 was built using a binomial logit model based on the digital national land information data for Kagawa Prefecture. Data on geomorphology, geology, population and initial land use were used as explanatory variables in the model. The accuracy of prediction by the model was reasonably high and the initial land use was found to be a critical factor for the land-use conversion.
(2) A multi-level modeling approach was applied to analyze agricultural land distribution in Japan, resulting in higher accuracy with smaller number of factors than in single-level models. We also succeeded in revealing local characteristics of regions that affect agricultural land distribution, such as a role of agricultural cooperative, level of labor market, agricultural investment, and tightness of rural community.
(3) Quantitative analysis on land-use conversion and its factors was carried out at an irrigated area in southern Taiwan through satellite image analysis. Agricultural land conversion was then separated into two kinds; change in agricultural practice and shifting to non-agricultural use, within which dynamic system models were constructed respectively.
(4) Overall results of the project were assembled in a report, presenting the latest progress in understanding, analyzing, and projecting land-use conversion in broader municipal regions in Japan.
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