2003 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Facts, Assessments and Problems for Japanese Financial Stagnation
| Project/Area Number |
13630104
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba (2002-2003)
Niigata University (2001) |
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Principal Investigator |
MIYAKOSI Tatsuyoshi University of Tsukuba, IPPS, Professor, 社会工学系, 教授 (60166139)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2001 – 2003
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| Keywords | Financial stagnation / Inefficiency in banks / Economic / Granger causality / Stochastic Frontier model / social welfare cost |
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| Research Abstract |
We have derived the following results. 1. We investigated the bank failures and the government aid to banks in 1990s. The failure began to occur in the 1990s and the number of failures rapidly increased to several tens in the late 1990s. In order to avoid the bank's failure and dispose the nonperforming loan problem, the Japanese government aided the total amounts of 10 trillion yen to several banks during the years of 1998-2000. 2. We also have investigated whether the more bank lending causes the economic growth and whether the effect remains for the long periods. Both problems have been verified by the Granger causality test and by the impulse response function. 3. We finally provided a measure of the welfare cost of stagnation by using the Lucas model and measured the welfare cost of the Japanese long stagnation beginning in January 1990. We found that the cost of stagnation for consumers as a whole is high:80 thousands yen per month per person. In particular, the costs of stagnation for consumers in low income quintiles and for consumers living in urban districts are the highest. These findings illustrate differences in costs between consumers and then explain why some consumers do not feel the stagnation to be cost-full
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