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2003 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary

Studies on the transmission model for vivax malaria and its simulations

Research Project

Project/Area Number 13640116
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
Research InstitutionOKAYAMA UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

ISHIKAWA Hirofumi  OKAYAMA UNIVERSITY, Environmental Sci. & Tech. & Environmental Math. Sci., Professor, 環境理工学部, 教授 (00108101)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SASAKI Toru  Environmental Sci. & Tech. & Environmental Math. Sci., Lecturer, 環境理工学部, 講師 (20260664)
Project Period (FY) 2001 – 2003
KeywordsPlasmodium vivax / Malaria / Transmission / The Solomon Islands / Model / Simulation / Relapse
Research Abstract

We have proposed a mathematical model describing the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria quantitatively, which is adjusted to the infected region, Guadalcanal, in the Solomon Islands. The simulation of a transmission model will be instrumental in planning the malaria control strategy. A characteristic of the life cycle of P. vivax parasites is that a sporozoite injected into the blood stream by a mosquito bite may sometimes stay in a hepatocyte as a hypnozoite. Therefore we have incorporated a phenomenon of renewed infections caused by a relapse into the transmission model. Also through the simulations we have attempted to evaluate the decline in prevalence caused by the programs of selective mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control such as the distribution of permethrin-treated bednets. The simulations have indicated that the concentrated repetition of MDA at one week intervals would reduce the prevalence of vivax malaria swiftly in the beginning and would keep the parasite rate below 1% for a few years but the prevalence would increase thereafter. In contrast the parasite rate would remain below 1% for a long time if a trial of one or two times MDA is accompanied with some reduction of the vectorial capacity by the enforcement of vector control. In any case, it is important to beware of relapse cases because even after the execution of MDA it takes a long time to decrease the proportion of hypnozoite carriers.

  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All Other

All Publications (13 results)

  • [Publications] Ishikawa, H., Ohga, Y., Doi, R.: "A model for the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido, Japan"Parasitology Research. 91. 444-451 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] 石川 洋文: "三日熱マラリアモデルの構築とコントロール・プロジェクトへの応用"Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene. 31・4. 233-236 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishikawa, H., Ishii, A, Nagai, N.et al.: "A mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria"Parasitology International. 52・1. 81-93 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] Tsunekuni, Y, Ohga, Y., Ishikawa H.: "Studies on the transmission model of HIV/AIDS among commercial sex workers in Thailand"J.Fac.Environmental Sci. & Tech.Okayama U.. 8・1. 1-7 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishii, H., Ishikawa, H., Ohga, Y.: "Mathematical model for the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis and its applications"Japanese J.Trop.Med.Hygiene. 30・1. 58-59 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] Ohga, Y., Ishikawa.H., Doi, R.et al.: "Simulations on prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido on the basis of vole popul."J.Fac.Environmental Sci. & Tech.Okayama U.. 7・1. 1-5 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishikawa, H., Ohga, Y., Doi, R.: "A model for the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido, Japan"Parasitology Research. 91. 444-451 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishikawa, H.: "The construction of a model for the transmission of vivax malaria and the application to the evaluation of control projects"Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 31(4). 233-236 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishikawa, H., Ishii, A., Nagai, N.et al.: "A mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria"Parasitology International. 52(1). 81-93 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Tsunekuni, Y., Ohga, Y., Ishikawa H.: "Studies on the transmission model of HIV/AIDS among commercial sex workers in Thailand"J.Fac.Environmental Sci.& Tech.Okayama U.. 8(1). 1-7 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishii, H., Ishikawa H., Ohga, Y.: "Mathematical model for the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis and its applications"Japanese Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 30(1). 58-59 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Ohga, Y., Ishikawa, H., Doi, R.et al.: "Simulations on prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido on the basis of vole population."J.Fac.Environmental Sci.& Tech.Okayama U.. 7(1). 1-5 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Ishii, H., Ishikawa, H., Ohga, Y: "Mathematical model for the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis and its applications"J.Fac.Environmental Sci.& Tech.Okayama U.. 7(1). 7-16 (2002)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より

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Published: 2005-04-19  

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