2004 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Quantitative Analysis for Japanese Long-run Recession and International Dependency with Asia Economy
| Project/Area Number |
14530054
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済政策(含経済事情)
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| Research Institution | HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
ICHIHASHI Masaru Hiroshima University, Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Associate Professor, 総合科学部, 助教授 (10223108)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2002 – 2004
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| Keywords | Decomposition for Degree of contribution / Japanese Economy / Time Series Analysis / Cointegration Analysis / Equivalent of Three Aspects / International I-O Analysis |
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| Research Abstract |
This time my research showed as follows ;
First, I tested Japanese Macro economic data for 46 years for Unit Root Test. As a result, all of Nominal GDP, Real GDP and Deflator of GDP were found as Non-stationary data. Especially, Nominal GDP and Deflator of GDP were I(2) variables. So, I got the result that I should treated those economic data as the variables which have the order for Non-stationary state.
Second, I analyzed the cause of Japanese long-run recession by decomposition of factor of growth rate. Using the degree of contribution of growth rate in Equivalent 3 aspects, I found main causes of long recession. In production side, Industries of Construction and Trade had serious declining in 90s in Japan and in demand side private investment went down and private final consumption didn't keep the max contributor to GDP. Moreover, operate surplus fell down seriously in 90's in value added side.
So, the conclusion is that shortage of demand and declining of productivity are occurring simultaneously in deferent aspects in Japanese economy.
Third, adding above, I researched situation of price variation and production factors. As the result, it seemed that main cause of deflation in late 90's in Japan was keeping money in many banks. Rising up of Marshall's k recent years was evidence of no enlarging of Money Supply. Moreover, the collapse of early 90's boom in Japan made serious damage, such as high unemployment rate and falling down of wage, to labor field, which led to decreasing of consumption demand.
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