2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Observation and modeling of the perceptual errors of service level on route choice for efficient transportation network planning
| Project/Area Number |
14550532
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Shibaura Institute of Technology |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
IWAKURA Seiji Shibaura Institute of Technology, Dept.of Civil Eng., Professor, 工学部, 教授 (20223373)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2002 – 2005
|
| Keywords | level of service / perception error / habitual behavior / discrete choice model / route choice / diffusion process model / panel data / Oedo line |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
The mode choice model and route choice model using the individual choice model for travel demand analysis are used for a lot of transportation planning in Japan. However, some overestimated travel demand results have been faced harsh public criticism in recent years. These criticisms are occurred during approximately several years after starting operation service in many cases.
However, we think that a certain fixed period is required for advancement in user's awareness of changed transportation network and the recognition of actual service level to the transportation system. When a major change of a transportation system in the past was made, memory of the past service level may be fixed.
First this study presents some observation results on the urban railway passengers' perceptual errors of railway service level and time-series number of passenger of new railway in Tokyo metropolitan area. The results of this survey are that observation results are explicitly confirmed perceptual errors on travel time and congestion rate and that perceptual error is attributable to the past experience of route service level, satisfaction level of service and information-gathering ability. These empirical results show that reported values for alternatives are systematically biased, rather than being randomly misperceived.
Perceptual error becomes a major issue in revealed preference analysis when we make travel demand forecasting models. Therefore, we proposed some route choice behavior models with perceptual error of transportation service level estimation model. This study shows estimation method of perceptual alternative routes by choice set generation model using parameterized logit captivity, and simultaneous estimation model of route choice and the perceptual transportation service level.
|
