2015 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
ボリビア・アマゾンにおける将来の気候変動と人為活動が洪水リスクに与える影響評価
| Project/Area Number |
14F04370
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Tohoku University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
有働 恵子 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 准教授 (80371780)
|
|---|
| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MOYA QUIROGA VLADIMIR 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 外国人特別研究員
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-25 – 2017-03-31
|
| Keywords | Flood / Amazonia / HEC-RAS / flood hazard / hydrologic model / hydraulic model / hydropower dam / vector borne disease |
|---|
| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
A semi-distributed hydrological model was successfully set up and calibrated for simulating the hydrological response of the study catchment.
2D hydrodynamic models MIKE21 and HEC-RAS v5 were successfully set up and calibrated for simulating the flood extent and flood depths in the study area.
New methodologies for the assessment of flood consequences considering flood depth and flood duration were analyzed and proposed. Flood depth hazard considers flood depths and possible response actions from people. Flood duration considers health problems due to long exposure to flood waters such as exposure to vector borne diseases (people) and skin diseases (cattle)
We analyzed the backwater effects due to the presence of the Jirau hydropower dam. Although the Jirau Dam is located 98 km from the Bolivian border, results show that the backwater effects of the dam propagate into Bolivian territory.
|
| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The climatological conditions due to climate change were evaluated and the input data files for the simulation of future flood conditions were prepared.
We evaluated potential land use and deforestation scenarios reported by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE-Brazil) and the Institute of Environmental Research for Amazonia (IPAM-Brazil).
Currently, we are running the simulations.
|
| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We will simulate the future flood conditions considering climate change scenarios. We will use WRF downscaled climate change projections with a resolution of 12 km considering three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
We will also analyze the future flood conditions due to deforestation and economic development plans. We will consider expansion of agricultural frontier and potential changes due to highways development.
Then, we will perform comparison of the current flood conditions with the future potential flood conditions.
|
