Development of worst case typhoon-surge model and estimation of its occurrence probability

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15H04048
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Mase Hajime 京都大学, 防災研究所, 研究員 (30127138)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 平石 哲也 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20371750) ; 森 信人 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90371476) ; 安田 誠宏 関西大学, 環境都市工学部, 准教授 (60378916) ; 中條 壮大 大阪市立大学, 大学院工学研究科, 講師 (20590871) ; 二宮 順一 金沢大学, 環境デザイン学系, 助教 (20748892) ; 金 洙列 鳥取大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (60508696) ; 澁谷 容子 鳥取大学, その他部局等, 特命准教授 (10632482)
• Research Collaborator: SHIBUTANI Yoko 東洋建設, 鳴尾研究所, 研究員
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 高潮 / 台風 / 最悪クラス / 東京湾 / 大阪湾 / 伊勢湾 / 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to estimate the worst class typhoon / storm surge targeting the risk management of coastal disasters in Japan, typhoon modeling and storm surges simulation were developed for impact assessment of climate change in coastal zone. Combining two methods, the worst class typhoon and storm surge can be estimated in Japan. Based on the developed method, worst-case typhoons / storm surges were estimated in 3 major bays, Tokyo, Osaka and Ise. The occurrence probability and estimated economic loss were estimated by the model.

Free Research Field

海岸工学