Decision Support for Ship Design with Real Options Analysis

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15H04208
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Naval and maritime engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Hiekata Kazuo 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (80396770)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 満行 泰河 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 助教 (40741335) ; 大和 裕幸 東京大学, 新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (50220421)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 意思決定 / リアルオプション / システム設計 / 船舶設計

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In ship building, the design decisions are driven by technological performance such as fuel oil consumption rate and maximum speed at given design conditions. However, the fluctuations of shipping market will change conditions of operations and ships have to be in service at inefficient non-optimal conditions, such as different service speed or different design draft. We developed simulation models for fuel oil consumption rate through ship life cycle and for calculation of profit of shipping company with market fluctuations, then apply Real Option Analysis to explore flexibility of ships in operations. The life cycle value of ships are obtained as Net Present Value with these models and we evaluated the value of flexibility such as changeability of optimal speed or of hull shape modification to fit to actual operational profiles.

Free Research Field

船舶海洋工学