2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Construction of Policy-Evaluation-Oriented andHeterogeneity-Sensitive National Transfer Accounts and their Application to Policiesfor Coping with Declining Fertility and Population Aging
| Project/Area Number |
15H05692
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Review Section |
Humanities and Social Sciences
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
ICHIMURA Hidehiko 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (50401196)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
IWAMOTO Yasushi 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (40193776)
USUI Emiko 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (50467263)
OGAWA Naohiro 日本大学, 経済学部, 名誉教授 (20139075)
OKUMURA Tsunao 横浜国立大学, 国際社会科学研究院, 教授 (90323922)
KAWAGUCHI Daiji 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (80346139)
KITAO Sagiri 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (50769958)
SAWADA Yasuyuki 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (40322078)
SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi 公益財団法人中曽根康弘世界平和研究所, 研究本部, 主任研究員 (20377039)
TAKAHASHI Sayuri 東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 講師 (40313217)
MATSUKURA Rikiya 日本大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (00409145)
YAMAGUCHI Shintaro 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (20793946)
YAMADA Tomoaki 明治大学, 商学部, 教授 (00440206)
WATANABE Tsutomu 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90313444)
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| Research Collaborator |
ISHIZAKI Tatsuro
UEDA Kenichi
OMORI Yasuhiro
OWAN Hideo
OSHIO Takashi
KATO Kengo
GRIFEN Andrew
KONDO Katsunori
KONDO Naoki
SATO Itaru
SIM Seung-Gyu
SHIMOTSU Katsumi
SUGAWARA Shinya
SUZUKI Michio
TANAKA Ryuichi
TERADA Kazuyuki
NAKAJIMA Ryo
NAKADA Daigo
NOGUCHI Haruko
HASHIMOTO Hideki
HARA Konan
FABINGER Michal
FUKAI Taiyo
FUKUDA Setsuya
MATSUSHIMA Hitoshi
MITSUYAMA Nahoko
YAMADA Hiroyuki
WATANABE Kota
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015 – 2021
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| Keywords | 少子高齢化 / 政策評価 / ノンパラメトリックス / セミパラメトリックス / 国民移転勘定 / 構造推定 / regression discontinuity analysis |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) is a new tool for analyzing intergenerational income transfers in the conditions of rapid population aging, widely used by international organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, and the UN. It is an epoch-making tool in that it captures both private and public per capita intergenerational income transfers at a point in time in an internationally comparable way. In the present research, we endeavor to expand the NTA so as to capture not only the average income, but also income heterogeneity (in relation to household composition, and socio-economic status), as well as income across the life cycle. In addition, we have studied an NTA framework that can, beside income transfers, also capture intergenerational time transfers, in child-rearing or caring for the elderly parents, for example. The Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement, the National Survey on Work and Family (1st and 2nd survey),and the life history survey were conducted during the research period.
In this research, we proposed a method to improve various problems with the conventional national transfer account, and developed a method to create a separate national transfer account for men and women. In addition, by following the same generation, we conducted research to expand into a framework that captures how each generation has supported each other in the 35 years from 1984 to 2019. In addition to grasping the situation of income transfer, we conducted panel surveys necessary to conduct analysis that contributes to various policy evaluations for the declining birthrate and aging population, and empirical analysis and method development using them.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究では従来の国民移転勘定の様々な問題点を改善する手法を提案し、男女別の国民移転勘定を作成する手法を開発した。また同じ世代を追うことで1984年から2019年までの35年間に各世代間がどのように支え合ってきたかを捉える枠組みへと拡張するための研究を行った。また所得移転の状況を捉えるだけでなく様々な少子高齢化政策に資する分析を行うために必要なパネル調査を行い、それらを用いた実証分析と手法開発を行った。
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| Free Research Field |
計量経済学
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