2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Probable effects of population dynamics of vector mosquitoes in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
15K00526
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Environmental dynamic analysis
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
Shunji Ohta 早稲田大学, 人間科学学術院, 教授 (10288045)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
福井 眞 早稲田大学, 人間科学学術院, 講師(任期付) (90754573)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 地球温暖化 / 感染症 / 感染症媒介生物 / 個体群 / 生態系影響評価 / 降水影響評価 / 微気象 / 水温モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The population dynamics of mosquitoes in temperate regions are not well understood compared to tropical or subtropical mosquitoes, even there is a big concern that the mosquito-borne diseases are prevalent under future climates. We developed a mosquito population dynamics model, implementing a life history of diapauses for overwintering. Parameters were estimated by using simulated annealing method based on the likelihood utilizing the observed data in Tokyo. The observed population data on Aedes albopictus, vector of dengue and Zika virus, and Culex pipiens, can cause West Nile fever and Japanese encephalitis, in Tokyo was well reproduced by our model. We demonstrated the decrease in population and shortening of active period under future climate condition for Cx.pipiens and showed an increase in population for Ae. albopictus by coupling our model with a global climate model. Our results provide the information of potential risk of mosquito-borne disease with fine temporal resolution.
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| Free Research Field |
環境科学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
感染症媒介生物のうち、熱帯性の媒介蚊の研究は進みつつあり、地球温暖化の進行により温帯域の媒介蚊の挙動に関する関心が高まっている。日本においては東京・代々木公園を中心に広まったデング熱の騒動は記憶に新しい。蚊媒介性の感染症について、イエカは日本脳炎やウエストナイル熱、ヒトスジシマカはデング熱やジカ熱などを媒介するため、蚊の種類に応じた感染症対策が必要となる。本研究は、蚊種別の個体群動態モデルの開発ならびに将来気候データとの結合を通して、温暖化気候条件下における蚊の季節的消長や個体数を予測することで、我が国、特に東京の蚊媒介性の感染症リスクについて、時間解像度が高い知見を提供することができた。
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