Elucidation of hypothetical bias generation mechanism and calculation of correction coefficient in economic evaluation of food safety

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K07602
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Agricultural science in management and economy
• Research Institution: Chiba University
• Principal Investigator: Kurihara Shinichi 千葉大学, 大学院園芸学研究科, 教授 (80292671)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 食品安全性 / 仮想バイアス / オークション / 支払い意志額

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we examined the existence of hypothetical bias in the economic evaluation of food safety and clarified its magnitude. Specifically, the willingness of consumers to pay for non-GMO feed milk and feed milk without and without antibiotics was evaluated using Random nth price auction. In addition, we conducted a comparative experiment between the group that introduced measures to suppress virtual bias (Cheap Talk & Promise) and the group that did not, and measured the magnitude of virtual bias.
As a result of the measurement, it was confirmed that there was a hypothetical bias of 6% for non-GMO milk and 26% for antibiotic-free diet. From this result, it became clear that a hypothetical bias is generated especially for added value excluding unknown danger.

Free Research Field

農業経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的意義は，Random nth price auctionの実行性を検証できた点にある。このオークションは，コンピュータがランダムに発生させた順番の価格を落札価格とした入札を繰り返すもので，近年，環境経済学分野で注目されている。本研究の結果より，従来のSecond price auctionに比べて，競争による歪みを取り除き，より適正な金額の入札を促すシステムであることが概ね実証された。次に，社会的意義としては，仮想バイアスを補正する係数が計測できた点がある。具体的には，未知の危険を取り除いた安全性については，一般的なアンケートでは26％の過大評価がなされることが明らかになった。