Risk prediction for gastric cancer using GWAS-identified polymorphisms, Helicobacter pylori infection and lifestyle-related risk factors in a Japanese population

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K08792
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hygiene and public health
• Research Institution: Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Hidemi Ito 愛知県がんセンター(研究所), 遺伝子医療研究部, 室長 (90393123)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 胃がん / リスク予測 / 遺伝的要因 / 遺伝子多型 / ピロリ菌感染 / 喫煙 / 野菜果物摂取 / 個別化予防

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We conducted two independent case-control studies, the first for model derivation (697 cases and 1,372 controls) and the second (678 and 678) for external validation. Using the derivation study data, we developed a prediction model by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, ABC classification defined by H.pylori infection and atrophic gastritis, smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, and selected GWAS-identified polymorphisms. Performance was assessed regarding discrimination (area under the curve, AUC).
A combination of four GWAS-identified polymorphisms and the other predictors provided high discriminatory accuracy in both studies, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% confidence intervals, 0.77-0.81) and 0.80 (0.77-0.82), respectively. This risk prediction model, which includes genetic, biological and lifestyle-related factors, might be useful in classifying Japanese into relevant risk groups of gastric cancer for personalized prevention programs.

Free Research Field

がん疫学