2006 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Investigation on Teleconnection and Prediction of Water-Related Disasters and Abnormal Weather in East Asia
| Project/Area Number |
16404006
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 海外学術 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
TAKARA Kaoru Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor (80144327)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TACHIKAWA Yasuto Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research institute, Associate Professor (40227088)
CHIKAMORI Hidetaka Okayama University, Graduate School of Environmental Science, Associate Professor (40217229)
KAWAMURA Akira Tokyo Metropolitan University, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor (10177735)
USHIYAMA Motoyuki Iwate Prefectural University, Faculty of Policy Science, Associate Professor (80324705)
YOSHITANI Jun'ichi Public Works Research Institute, Senior Researcher (90355834)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2006
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| Keywords | El Nino-Southern Oscillation / teleconnection / water disaster risk / social impact assessment / prediction of risk / land use change / abnormal weather / spatio-temporal correlation |
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| Research Abstract |
This research aims at systematically summarizing historical events and various aspects of water-related disasters in East Asia, focusing on the relation ship of global climate and oceanographic-meteorological factors such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, impacts of water-related disasters on the society and countermeasures, and water hazard risk predicted in the future. The main activities include :
(1) Mapping and chronological approach: Various kinds of data are collected such as hydro-meteorological data, locations of disasters, time, statistics of human damage and economic loss in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Analytical research was implemented to compare the changes of natural and social conditions and the changes in water-related disasters in terms of human damage, economic loss, magnitudes of floods and droughts.
(2) Spatio-temporal correlation and teleconnection between water-related disasters and abnormal weather: Teleconnection was investigated by analyzing the re
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lationship between the spatial patterns of Antarctic Oscillation (AO)and South Oscillation Index (SOI) when abnormal weather took place and the occurrence of torrential rainfall and disasters caused in East Asian countries in terms of historical characteristics of abnormal hydrological phenomena and possible meteorological variations.
(3) Water hazard risk and land use change: Change of the land surface conditions in river basins in each country was investigated, based on satellite imageries, aerial photographs and the thematic maps of topography, geology and land use. Also investigated is the change of hydrological change in runoff and water hazard risks caused by the development of agricultural lands, urbanization, and construction of reservoirs.
(4) Occurrence of water hazards, social impacts assessment and prediction of risks: Probabilistic approach was tried to clarify the change of frequency of floods and droughts with the times. Various records were collected to analyze how the occurrence of water hazards depends on abnormal weather and the consequences by people's concerns, advancement of information and telecommunication (IT)systems, and social change of awareness. Less
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