2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Wide-area Earthquake Disaster Management Using Empirical Estimation Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Functions
| Project/Area Number |
16510136
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Gifu University |
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Principal Investigator |
NOJIMA Nobuoto Gifu University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (20222200)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SUGITO Masata Gifu University, River Basin Research Institute, Professor, 流域圏科学研究センター, 教授 (60115863)
FURUMOTO Yoshinori Gifu University, Faculty of Engineering, Research Associate, 工学部, 助手 (90303510)
KUSE Masumitsu Gifu University, River Basin Research Institute, Research Associate, 流域圏科学研究センター, 助手 (30397319)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2005
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| Keywords | Seismic disaster management / Lifeline disruption / Initial outage probability / Restoration process / Seismic intensity distribution / Population exposure / Economic damage / Supply Chain |
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| Research Abstract |
This study aims to support wide-area earthquake disaster management using empirical estimation model of post-earthquake lifeline functions. First, wide-area assessment of damage impact on manufacturing sector was performed. On the basis of lifeline importance factors proposed by ATC-25, production levels of manufacturing sector were quantified for eight patterns of disruption of three kinds of utility lifelines (electricity, water, and city gas supply), which is combined with probabilistic estimation model of eight patterns of lifeline disruptions. A distribution map of seismic intensity of the anticipated Tokai earthquake and that of population engaged in manufacturing sector were overlaid with each other to evaluate the impact in terms of population exposure. Production levels of various kinds of manufacturers were estimated in terms of daily production price. The results would be beneficial for macroscopic assessment of economic impact of earthquake disaster and its wide-area manage
… More
ment for manufacturing sector.
From microscopic point of view, manufacturer's supply chain management is essential practice in the modern business environment. Manufacturer's supply chain is well designed to work effectively in a normal operation. However, its structure involves high vulnerability in the event of unexpected disruption of production flow caused by natural and/or man-made disaster. In this study, a system dynamics model of a supply chain is proposed to describe its detailed mechanism of production flow and to evaluate the effect of potential disturbance and resultant direct/indirect loss. The proposed model is capable to consider such adverse effects as physical damage to production facilities, loss of utility lifeline functions, loss of transportation measures, etc. The effect of mitigation measures can be compared as well ; they are improvement of seismic fragility of facilities, enhancement of stocks, installation of back-ups equipment, etc. The proposed model can be used to facilitate preparation of BCP (Business Continuity Plan) and wide-area management of supply chain. Less
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Research Products
(28 results)
