2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Evolutionary dynamics and adaptive landscape : Testing theory with evolutionary experiment and molecular epidemiological data
| Project/Area Number |
16570020
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Ecology/Environment
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University |
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Principal Investigator |
SASAKI Akira Kyushu University, Faculty of Science, Associate Professor, 理学研究院, 助教授 (90211937)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2005
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| Keywords | evolution of virulence / spatial structure / small world / epidemiological dynamics / bistability / rabbit hemorrhagic disease / 非線形共鳴 / 流行予測 |
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| Research Abstract |
Emergence of virulent pathogen : host spatial structure may explain large shift in pathogen virulence
Theory on the evolution of virulence generally predicts selection for an optimal level of virulence determined by trade-offs with transmission and/or recovery. Here we consider the evolution of pathogen virulence in hosts who acquire long-lived immunity and live in a spatially structured population. We show theoretically that large shifts in virulence may occur in pathogen populations as a result of a bistability in evolutionary dynamics caused by the local contact or social population structure of the host. This model provides an explanation for the rapid emergence of the highly virulent strains of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus. This work is published in Science.
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Research Products
(14 results)
