Development newly designed computer simulation of propagation pattern of infectious diseases with independent of traditional mathematical model and its application.

2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary

• Project/Area Number: 16605001
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: 計算科学
• Research Institution: Akita University
• Principal Investigator: NAKAMURA Akira Akita University, Faculty of Medicine, Professor, 医学部, 教授 (20155815)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): KATAHIRA Masayuki Akita University, Faculty of Medicine, Associate Professor, 医学部, 助教授 (90250860) ; NAKAGOMI Toyoko Nagasaki University, Graduate School of Medical Science, Associate Professor, 大学院・医歯薬学総合研究科, 助教授 (40155693) ; NAKAGOMI Osamu Nagasaki University, Graduate School of Medical Science, Professor, 大学院・医歯薬学総合研究科, 教授 (70143047) ; ARISAWA Koukichi University of Tokushima, Graduate School of Health Bioscience, Professor, 大学院・ヘルスバイオサイエンス研究部, 教授 (30203384) ; MATSUOKA Masanori Hokkaido University, Graduate School of Letters, Professor, 大学院・文学研究科, 教授 (70111242)
• Project Period (FY): 2004 – 2005
• Keywords: Computer Simulation / Emerging / Restoring Infectious Diseases / Propagation of Infectious Diseases / Measles / SARS / Influenza

Research Abstract

The main theme of our research is to develop the complete descriptive method of any pattern of propagation of infectious diseases in the actual society by using Monte Carlo method (MCM). There are two necessary aspects to be considered: 1) parameters related with pathological aspects, 2) parameters and situations related with social environment and activities. It is almost impossible for the conventional mathematical models to handle parameters from both aspects. Therefore, it is our goal to develop a new model other than mathematical models in describing the transmitting pattern of infectious diseases.
We set two targets as our unavoidable objectives: 1) from computer game to scientific tool, and 2) drastic improvement in computational methodology. It is necessary to verify the rationality of the algorithm of computer simulation employed. Otherwise, any computer simulation will remain as a computer game. We performed statistical analyses to verify and grow out of computer game.
The resu lts of the first objective were reported at the national meeting of the Japan Mathematical Sociology (37th, 38th and 39th) as well as at the Japan-US Joint Meeting on Mathematical Sociology (3rd, Jun. 2005, Sapporo), and we believe it was verified. Our MCM computer simulation can handle complicated parameters from the two aspects. And our new method is complementary to the intuitive conventional mathematical models rather than they are confronting each other.
Attempts of improving computational methodology were performed by applying MCM to the cases of extremely different contagions (measles and SARS/influenza). Finally, a generalized MCM program has come out, which is effective to the droplet-type transmission with considering various parameters from three aspects of 1) pathology, 2) preventive/containment policy, as well as 3) social environment/activity. Although our simulation is applicable even to the society consisting of several regions, the more generalized methodology will be considered.
Just after our research project started, several big projects with total amount of budget of dozens of million dollars were introduced in US. We are now preparing to publish our results deliberatively and rapidly.