The risk score for making a potential heart failure in a Japanese general urban population

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16H05252
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: National Cardiovascular Center Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Kokubo Yoshihiro 国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 病院, 医長 (20393217)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 潜在性心不全 / リスクスコア / 追跡研究 / 地域住民 / BNP

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Despite the global heart failure (HF) pandemic, there are few population-based prospective studies on HF in non-Westerners. We prospectively followed-up 2,809 Suita Study subjects for new incident Latent HF. LHF was defined as BNP≧100pg/mL or HF medication. Each subject's health status and BNP were checked in biannual medical examinations, and all subjects completed annual questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard model was used for incident LHF. In 18134 person-years of follow-up, 335 incident LHF events occurred. We developed a scoring system for each risk factor as follows: 0/3/6/9 points for participants in their 40-50/60/70/80s, respectively; 3 points for atrial fibrillation; 2 points for cardiac murmur, CHD, ischemic stroke, or systolic hypertensive with non-HDLC≧140mg/dL and for systolic prehypertensive with low non-HDLC; 3 points for sHT with low non-HDLC; and 1 point for a GFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2 and for excessive drinker (C-statistic 0.727, 95% CI: 0.699-0.755).

Free Research Field

予防医学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

心不全患者が今後増えてパンデミックになると言われるも、地域住民を対象とした疫学研究がほとんどない。今回潜在性心不全の罹患リスクを求め、10年後の潜在性心不全の予測確率を初めて求めることが可能となる。潜在性心不全のリスクスコアを作成することで、健診や日常外来程度の項目で予測が可能となる。