我が国における高齢化と労働力確保のための新たな戦略に関する定量的研究

2017 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K04136
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: ギルモー スチュアート 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (20608913)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 中岡 慎治 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 派遣研究員 (30512040) [Withdrawn]
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: Demography / Matrix models / Projection / Simulation

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Model development has been completed and projections of population aging with policy interventions made to the year 2065. A manuscript has been prepared describing the modeling process, the different scenario projections and policy implications for Japan. The research showed that fertility policies will have little impact on the rate of increase of the old age dependency ratio, with a total fertility rate far above replacement levels required to compensate for Japan’s already aged demography. Migration measures would require unprecedented, and ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades in order to reduce Japan’s OADR. Neither fertility nor migration policy will reduce Japan’s OADR or reverse Japan’s ageing population. This research has shown that Japan needs to focus on activating its human capital through the prolongation of working lives, increasing participation, and improving productivity within the Japanese labour force to mitigate and adapt to the inevitable effects of ageing populations.
The PI has also received training in matrix models and has developed a matrix model for migration-based and natal-based demographic policies that can estimate the long-term demographic mixture in the Japanese population, enabling assessment of multi-generational migrant population structures under different demographic policies.

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

Submissions are underway for updated data which will be used in the final year of the project for enhanced models.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

The PI has identified collaborators with access to detailed data on the health workforce and is preparing the final stage of the research, which will involve assessments of the future burden of health needs and simulation of the gap between available healthcare providers and healthcare needs at the small area (municipal) level in Japan. These models will be developed this year.