Estimation model of CO2 emissions in transportation sector considering travel behavior change accompanied with making cities compact

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K16230
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Design and evaluation of sustainable and environmental conscious system
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: ARIGA TOSHINORI 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 社会環境システム研究センター, 主任研究員 (80585844)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 交通行動分析 / コンパクトシティ / 運輸部門CO2排出量 / ビッグデータ / webアンケート / エントロピーモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study explores a new method derived from inner-city transportation by using mobile phone positioning data to estimate automobile emissions. The Floating Population Data on average weekdays in the Tsuchiura region in Japan was used for the purposes of the current estimation. First, the entropy model was employed to duplicate the daily spatio-temporal trajectories of people under the assumption that they were at their home cell at 2am and that after their travels within the city, they returned to the same cell within 24 hours. Next, modal splits of both origin and destination cells were estimated according to an online questionnaire survey on travel behavior conducted in 2015. Finally, automobile CO2 emissions were calculated based on the vehicle kilometers traveled by a unit of emission. In conclusion, this new estimation method enables the immediate assessment of automobile CO2 released into the atmosphere by inner-city traffic movement.

Free Research Field

交通行動分析

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

国内の全CO2排出量の約20%が運輸部門由来で，そのうち過半が乗用車によるものであり，低炭素社会を実現する上で乗用車のCO2排出削減は重要な課題となっている．コンパクトなまちづくりは乗用車CO2排出削減に大きな効果があるとされるが，人口分布や施設配置が変わっていく過程で，住民の交通行動はどのように変わっているのか，それに伴って排出量はどの程度削減されているのかモニタリングする方法が確立されていない．本研究は近年利用可能になった携帯電話位置情報をもとにした人口統計データからモニタリングを試み，政策の効果をいち早く知る方法を模索したものである．