Quantification of environment, energy and food indicators associated with sustainable development goals in Asia

2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K18177
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: 藤森 真一郎 京都大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (80585836)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: SDGs / 統合評価モデル

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本年度は以下の2点を実施した。第一に、これまで開発してきた統合評価モデルに以下の要素すなわち、１）水資源評価、２）エネルギー安全保障指標を追加した。第二に、統合評価モデルを用いて持続可能な開発指標を定量化し、世界・アジアの将来シナリオを作成した。
１）については水需要を推計するモジュールを新たに開発した。灌漑、工業用水、生活用水をそれぞれ基準年情報から整備し、将来シナリオへ反映させた。同時に水資源量の将来値をモデル比較プロジェクトの結果から得て、流出量と需要量を比較し、水ひっ迫度評価を行った。指標には水ストレス人口を用いて、流域全体での評価及び世界を0.5度の格子にわけ、各格子で評価を行った場合を比較した。
２）についてはエネルギー自給率、多様性指標をモデル計算結果から出力できるようにした。その指標を日本、中国へ適用した。これらの論文は現在2つとも査読中である。
これらの新しく開発した統合評価モデルをもとに持続可能シナリオの定量化を行った。まず社会経済条件、例えば人口やGDP、エネルギー技術や農業収量などを外生変数として入力する。そして、様々な政策的・社会的対策をパラメータとして入力した。政策自体が内生変数として扱えるの場合はモデルが内生的に出力するので排出目標を外生変数として入力し計算した。例えば炭素税は内生的に計算する。そして、中国を例として評価を行い、現在その論文は査読中である。さらにアジア・世界全体の結果を現在まとめ、アジアの全体の持続可能な発展を示す。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges (2019)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sugiyama, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Seiya Endo, Yasumasa Fujii, Ryoichi Komiyama, Etsushi Kato, Atsushi Kurosawa, Yuhji Matsuo, Ken Oshiro, Fuminori Sano, Hiroto Shiraki
  • Journal Title: Energy Volume: 167 Pages: 1120-1131
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.091
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 統合評価モデルによる気候変動の評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎
  • Journal Title: 環境情報科学 Volume: 48-1 Pages: 30-34
• [Journal Article] A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios (2018)
  • Author(s): HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, et al.
  • Journal Title: Geoscientific Model Development Volume: 11 Pages: 4537-4562
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Limited role of working time shift in offsetting the increasing occupational-health cost of heat exposure (2018)
  • Author(s): Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasushi Honda, Naota Hanasaki, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui
  • Journal Title: Earth’s Future Volume: 6 Pages: 1588-1602
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000883
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India (2018)
  • Author(s): Shivika Mittal, Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla
  • Journal Title: Energies Volume: 11(9) Pages: 2213
  • DOI: 10.3390/en11092213
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5°C climate goal (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Joeri Rogelj, Xuanming Su, Petr Havlik, Volker Krey, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Keywan Riahi
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 13 Pages: 074033
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aad0f7
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Co-benefits of climate mitigation on air quality and human health in Asian countries (2018)
  • Author(s): Yang Xie, Hancheng Dai, Xinghan Xu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kan Yi, Toshihiko Masui, Gakuji Kurata
  • Journal Title: Environment International Volume: 119 Pages: 309-318
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.008
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (2018)
  • Author(s): McCollum, D.L., Zhou, W., Bertram, C., de Boer, H.-S., Bosetti, V., Busch, S., Despres, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Fay, M., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., et al
  • Journal Title: Nature Energy Volume: 3 Pages: 589-599
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C (2018)
  • Author(s): Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Xuanming Su, Toshihiko Masui
  • Journal Title: Carbon Management Volume: 11 Pages: 447-457
  • DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2018.1477374
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2°C and 1.5°C goals (2018)
  • Author(s): Runsen Zhang, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tatsuya Hanaoka
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 13(5) Pages: 054008
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabb0d
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] エネルギー技術情報を用いた経済モデルによる日本の長期二酸化炭素排出削減費用の推計 (2018)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎, 大城賢, 白木裕斗, 長谷川知子
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集G(環境) Volume: 74(5) Pages: I_213-I_222
  • DOI: 10.2208/jscejer.74.I_213
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 長期低炭素シナリオ下での電力系統安定化策実施量の推計 (2018)
  • Author(s): 白木裕斗, 大城賢, 藤森真一郎, 長谷川知子
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集G(環境) Volume: 74(5) Pages: I_369-I_378
  • DOI: 10.2208/jscejer.74.I_369
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Transformations to achieve the sustainable development goals (2018)
  • Author(s): Ana Paula Aguiar, Lars Berg, Avit Bhowmik, John Biberman, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Anita Breuer, Daniela Buscaglia, Sebastian Busch, Lorenza Campagnolo, Geoff Clarke, David Collste, Sarah Cornell, Felix Creutzig, Ines Dombrowsky, Kristie L. Ebi, Oreane Edelenbosch, Jae Edmonds, Shinichiro Fujimori et al
  • Journal Title: Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative, IIASA Volume: 1 Pages: 1-154
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century (2018)
  • Author(s): D. Leclere, Obersteiner M., Alkemade R., Almond R., Barrett M., Bunting G., Burgess N. D., Butchart S. H. M., Chaudhary A., Cornell S., De Palma A., DeClerck F. A. J., Di Fulvio F., Di Marco M., Doelman J. C., Durauer M., Ferrier S., Freeman R., Fritz S., Fujimori S. et al
  • Journal Title: IIASA Volume: 1 Pages: 1-43
  • DOI: 10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Recent research trend in climate change mitigation and some research examples made by our research team (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Organizer: Symposium on Japan-China Cooperative Research and Education for Environmental Technology
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] New integrated assessment modeling framework: incorporating energy-economic, technology, power generation, and land-use models (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Hiroto Shiraki, Ken Oshiro, Tomoko Hasegawa
  • Organizer: Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Assessment of mitigation options reconciling with sustainable development goals: a case study of China (2018)
  • Author(s): Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Toshihiko Masui
  • Organizer: Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Characterizing Japan’s energy pathways for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study (2018)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sugiyama, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Jiayang Wang, Ken Oshiro
  • Organizer: Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] WP3: Preparation and selection of global scenarios in the context of the global stocktake (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Jun’ya Takakura, Heleen van Soest, IIASA
  • Organizer: Second COMMIT Project Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] AIM modeling: What we have learned from Asian networking (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Organizer: Snowmass workshop - Transitions to Low GHG Futures: Challenges and Opportunities
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Economic Impacts Of Long-Term Climate Mitigation Targets In Japan Considering Technological Constraints (2018)
  • Author(s): Diego Silva Herran, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mikiko Kainuma
  • Organizer: 41st IAEE International Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Water-energy nexus studies by coupling the H08 global hydrological model and the AIM/CGE integrated assessment model (2018)
  • Author(s): Naota Hanasaki, Shinichiro Fujimori, Qian Zhou
  • Organizer: 8th GEWEX open science conference: Extremes and water on the edge
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 気候変動政策研究の最前線 (2018)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎
  • Organizer: 「京都大学環境工学研究最前線」講演会
• [Presentation] 日本の長期気候変動緩和策に関するマルチ・モデル分析 (2018)
  • Author(s): 杉山昌広, 藤森真一郎, 和田謙一, 王嘉陽, 大城賢, 加藤悦史, 黒沢厚志, 小宮山涼一, Silva Herran Diego, 藤井康正, 松尾雄司
  • Organizer: 環境経済・政策学会2018年大会
• [Presentation] エネルギー技術情報を用いた経済モデルによる日本の長期二酸化炭素排出削減費用の推計 (2018)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎, 大城賢, 白木裕斗, 長谷川知子
  • Organizer: 第26回地球環境シンポジウム
• [Presentation] 長期低炭素シナリオ下での電力系統安定化策実施量の推計 (2018)
  • Author(s): 白木裕斗, 大城賢, 藤森真一郎, 長谷川知子
  • Organizer: 第26回地球環境シンポジウム