A generational analysis of excess-demand consumption associated with government spending

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K03691
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Okayama University
• Principal Investigator: Tsuri Masao 岡山大学, 社会文化科学学域, 教授 (60401642)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 政府支出 / 民間消費 / 過剰消費 / 地方財政 / 民生費 / 地方交付税交付金

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study analyzes the relationship between government spending and consumption by capturing consumption by age group. The savings rate is low among the elderly, and the distribution is highly skewed. Differences by prefecture are small, but those by age group are pronounced. In the fiscal data analysis, after carefully sorting out the data, we found a negative relationship between civilian welfare expenditures and local allocation tax subsidies. Social security and other expenditures are maintained even in regions with aging and depopulation. A panel analysis of prefectural data confirmed that real per capita prefectural disposable income and real per capita civilian welfare expenditures can be significantly explained by real per capita household final consumption expenditure.

Free Research Field

経済政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

政府支出と民間消費との代替関係に関する既存研究は主にマクロ分析によるものであるが，本研究では市町村データを整理するとともに，消費や所得の年齢階級別推計も行い，より詳細な分析を行った。新型コロナウィルス感染症拡大に対し政府債務はさらに膨らんでいる。そのため，財政と民間消費との関係は，より重要な分析テーマとなっている。過剰消費により将来的にも消費が伸びない可能性が示唆される。本研究のデータ整理は，個人の生活満足度（well- being）と消費との関係分析につながった。社会保障は支出増に対する財源の問題を抱えるが，本研究は社会保障政策と財源のバランス最適化についての示唆を与える。