2007 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Evaluation of Flood Prediction Uncertainties and its Application to Ungauged Basins
| Project/Area Number |
18560497
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
水工水理学
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
TACHIKAWA Yasuto Kyoto University, Graduate School of Engineering, Associate Professor (40227088)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKARA Kaoru Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor (80144327)
SAYAMA Takahiro Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Assistant Professor (70402930)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2006 – 2007
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| Keywords | distributed hydrologic model / runoff prediction / ungauged basins / predictive uncertainty / design flood / flood control planning / river planning / probable rainfall |
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| Research Abstract |
To obtain design flood, at first some patterns of spatiotemporal rainfall distributions with the magnitude of pre-determined return period is determined, then the rainfall distributions are converted to river discharges using a runoff model. Here, the given rainfall distributions have various patterns and the runoff model has limitations. Thus, the estimated river discharges include uncertainties which come from various sources. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the predictive uncertainty and clarify the sources of the uncertainty to determine design flood.
The predictive uncertainty in flood prediction mainly comes from 1) input uncertainty (insufficiency of time and space rainfall observation), 2) model structure uncertainty (insufficiency of the understandings of hydrologic processes), and 3) parameter uncertainty (insufficiency of model parameter identification). These uncertainties essentially stem from insufficient hydrologic observations. To solve the problem, to enhance the observation system is essential, but not practical because the target of prediction is flood which happens e.g. once a hundred years. Therefore, it is requested to develop a hydrologic prediction method for ungauged basins which fully utilize the information at gauged catchments. In this research, followings are conducted to obtain design flood at ungauged basins :
1) Development of a intensity-duration-frequency relationships based on scaling characteristics of rainfall extremes
2) Development of a rainfall time series generation method which reflects characteristics of rainfall extremes
3) Development of a method to assess the performance of rainfall-runoff models in terms of predictive uncertainty.
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[Presentation] Predictions of Heavy Floods in 2004 and 2005 in Japan and PUB2006
Author(s)
Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Giha LEE, Nawa Raj PRADHAN, Saeko FURUICHI, Kenichiro KOBAYASHI, Takahiro SAYAMA, and Kaoru TAKARA
Organizer
Proc. of the 3rd APHW Conference on "Wise Water Resources Management towards Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction"
Place of Presentation
Bangkok, Thailand
Year and Date
20061016-18
Description
「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
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[Presentation] Predictions of Heavy Floods in 2004 and 2005 in Japan and PUB2006
Author(s)
Yasuto, TACHIKAWA, Giha, LEE, Nawa, Raj, PRADHAN, Saeko, FURUICHI, Kenichiro, KOBAYASHI, Takahiro, SAYAMA, Kaoru, TAKARA
Organizer
Proc. of the 3rd APHW Conference on "Wise Water Resources Management towards Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction
Place of Presentation
Bangkok
Year and Date
20061016-18
Description
「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
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