Development of Sustainable Society Scenario Simulator for Designing Future Images of Circular Manufacturing Industry

2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20246130
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Recycling engineering
• Research Institution: Osaka University
• Principal Investigator: UMEDA Yasushi 大阪大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (40242086)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): MATSUMOTO Mitsutaka 独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所, サービス工学研究センター, 研究員 (00443226) ; FUKUSHIGE Shinichi 大阪大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 准教授 (10432527) ; KIMURA Fumihiko 法政大学, 理工学部, 教授 (60133104) ; MASUI Keijiro 独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所, 先進製造プロセス研究部門, グループ長 (70357995) ; FUJIMOTO Jun 千葉工業大学, 社会システム科学部, 教授 (90345132)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): MASUI Keijiro 独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所, 先進製造プロセス研究部門, グループ長 (70357995) ; FUJIMOTO Jun 千葉工業大学, 社会システム科学部, 教授 (70357995) ; KONDOH Shinsuke 独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所, 先進製造プロセス研究部門, 研究員 (40336516) ; KOMOTO Hitoshi 独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所, 先進製造プロセス研究部門, 研究員 (30613244) ; KOBAYASHI Hideki 大阪大学, 環境イノベーションデザインセンター, 招へい教授 (60446903) ; KISHITA Yusuke 大阪大学, 環境イノベーションデザインセンター, 特任助教 (60617158)
• Project Period (FY): 2008 – 2012
• Keywords: 持続可能社会 / 持続可能社会シナリオ / シミュレーション / 持続可能な製造業 / 環境配慮設計 / シナリオ構造化 / シナリオ設計 / シナリオ分析

Research Abstract

For discussing the image of sustainable society, various “sustainable society scenarios” have been described. However, it is difficult to understand them rationally and computational support for composing those scenarios is not adequate. For solving these problems, this study proposeda scenario representation methodology focusing on the logical structure of a scenario and a computational support methodology for designing a scenario. Then, based on these methodologies, “Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator,” which supports users to design and analyze a scenario, is developed. Finally, as a case study, a sustainable manufacturing scenario is described by using the proposed methodologies and the simulator.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Quantitative scenario-based simulation of global business models for manufacturers (2013)
  • Author(s): Hitoshi Komoto, Keijiro Masui, Tetsuo Tomiyama
  • Journal Title: Technology Volume: Vol. 62
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能社会に向けたバックキャスティング型シナリオ作成手法の提案 (2013)
  • Author(s): 和田春菜, 木下裕介, 水野有智, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 日本機械学会論文集C編 Volume: Vol. 79 Pages: 845-857
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能社会に向けた長期戦略立案のためのビジネス戦略シナリオの設計支援 (2012)
  • Author(s): 木下裕介, 廣崎真希, 水野有智, 和田春菜, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 日本機械学会論文集C編 Volume: Vol. 78 Pages: 3866-3880
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能な製造業の実現に向けた持続可能社会シナリオシミュレータの開発(第4報) -what-if分析による派生シナリオの作成手法 - (2012)
  • Author(s): 木下裕介, 水野有智, 和田春菜, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 精密工学会誌 Volume: Vol. 78 Pages: 985-991
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能な製造業の実現に向けた持続可能社会シナリオシミュレータの開発(第3報) - フォアキャスティング型シナリオ設計支援手法 - (2012)
  • Author(s): 水野有智, 木下裕介, 和田春菜, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 精密工学会誌 Volume: Vol. 78 Pages: 798-804
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Enhancing Meso Level Research in Sustainability Science - Challenges and Research Needs (2012)
  • Author(s): Keishiro Hara, Michinori Uwasu, Hideki Kobayashi, Shinji Kurimoto, Shinsuke Yamanaka Yoshiyuki Shimoda, Yasushi Umeda
  • Journal Title: Sustainability Volume: Vol. 4 Pages: 1833-1847
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 東日本大震災の被災地復興に向けた銅使用量の推計 (2012)
  • Author(s): 細野靖晴, 佐野健二, 小林英樹
  • Journal Title: 日本LCA学会誌 Volume: Vol. 8 Pages: 292-299
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Analysis of Key Success Factors for Eco-Business through Case Studies in Japan (2012)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Kondoh, Kei Kurakawa, Satoru Kato, Yasushi Umeda, Shozo Takata
  • Journal Title: Int. J. of Automation Technology Volume: Vol. 6 Pages: 252-263
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An analysis of remanufacturing practices in Japan (2011)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto Yasushi Umeda
  • Journal Title: J. of Remanufacturing Volume: Vol. 1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] リサイクルを考慮した国内銅資源供給の持続可能性評価-自動車、家電4品目、建設部門のリサイクルを中心とした分析- (2010)
  • Author(s): 柄井匡, 中野冠, 木村文彦
  • Journal Title: 日本機械学会論文集C編 Volume: Vol. 76 Pages: 3744-3751
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Development of a simulation model for reuse businesses and case studies in Japan (2010)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto
  • Journal Title: J. of Cleaner Production Volume: Vol. 18 Pages: 1284-1299
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能な製造業の実現に向けた持続可能社会シナリオシミュレータの開発(第2 報) -シナリオとシミュレータの接続による動的シナリオの作成- (2010)
  • Author(s): 木下裕介, 山崎泰寛, 水野有智, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 精密工学会誌 Volume: Vol. 76 Pages: 694-699
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 持続可能な製造業の実現に向けた持続可能社会シナリオシミュレータの開発(第1報) -構造的なシナリオ記述に基づく論理構造の分析- (2009)
  • Author(s): 木下裕介, 山崎泰寛, 水野有智, 福重真一, 梅田靖
  • Journal Title: 精密工学会誌 Volume: Vol. 75 Pages: 1029-2035
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Proposal of sustainable society scenario simulator (2009)
  • Author(s): Yasushi Umeda, Takeshi Nishiyama, Yasuhiro Yamasaki, Yusuke Kishita, Shinichi Fukushige
  • Journal Title: CIRP J. of Manufacturing Science and Technology Volume: Vol. 1 Pages: 272-278
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] クリーンエネルギー自動車の普及評価モデルの構築 (2008)
  • Author(s): 松本光崇, 近藤伸亮, 藤本淳, 梅田靖, 槌屋治紀, 増井慶次郎, 李賢映
  • Journal Title: エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 Volume: Vol. 29 Pages: 49-55
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] 持続可能社会シナリオ作成支援手法の開発 - 持続可能製造業シナリオを例に - (2012)
  • Author(s): 梅田靖
  • Organizer: 第4回横幹連合総合シンポジウム
  • Year and Date: 20121110-02
• [Presentation] Describing Sustainability Scenarios of Regional Electricity Systems: Influences of Introducing Photovoltaic Systems and Electric Vehicles into Electricity Networks (2012)
  • Author(s): Naoto Kurahashi
  • Organizer: Electronics Goes Green 2012+
  • Place of Presentation: Berlin, Germany.
  • Year and Date: 20120909-12
• [Presentation] Estimation of Long-term Copper Demand Based on Sustainability Scenarios: A Challenge to Sustainable Manufacturing Industry (2012)
  • Author(s): Yusuke Kishita
  • Organizer: ASME 2012 17th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conf. (DFMLC)
  • Place of Presentation: Chicago, USA
  • Year and Date: 20120812-15
• [Presentation] A simulation method of dynamic systems applied to backcasting scenario design (2012)
  • Author(s): Hitoshi Komoto
  • Organizer: The 4th CIRP Int. Conf. on Industrial Product Service Systems
  • Place of Presentation: 産総研臨海センター, 東京
  • Year and Date: 2012-11-09
• [Presentation] An analysis model for future demands of industrial products - case of automobile (2012)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto
  • Organizer: Int. Sym. on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management
  • Place of Presentation: 神奈川大学
  • Year and Date: 2012-08-06
• [Presentation] Sustainable Manufacturing: Evolution and Future (2011)
  • Author(s): Fumihiko Kimura
  • Organizer: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 京都, Keynote paper.
  • Year and Date: 20111130-1202
• [Presentation] A Methodology for Designing Sustainable Manufacturing Scenarios (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasushi Umeda
  • Organizer: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 20111130-1202
• [Presentation] Designing sustainable manufacturing scenarios using 3S Simulator (2011)
  • Author(s): Yuji Mizuno
  • Organizer: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 20111130-1202
• [Presentation] Describing Scenarios of Introducing Highly-efficient Gas Cogeneration Systems to Next-generation Apartment Buildings (2011)
  • Author(s): Yusuke Kishita
  • Organizer: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 20111130-1202
• [Presentation] Sustainable Car Society Scenarios: A "Game-changing" Approach, EcoDesign 2011: (2011)
  • Author(s): Jun Fujimoto
  • Organizer: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 20111130-1202
• [Presentation] Relevance Analysis of keywords related to Sustainability (2010)
  • Author(s): K. Masui
  • Organizer: CIRP 8th Global Conf. on Sustainable Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: Abu Dabi.
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-23
• [Presentation] Consumer preferences for reuse products: a case study on auto-parts reuse in Japan (2010)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto
  • Organizer: Going Green CARE INNOVATION 2010
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria.
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-11
• [Presentation] Proposal of a Cause-effect Pattern Library for realizing Sustainable Development (2009)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Kondoh
  • Organizer: 6th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
  • Year and Date: 20091207-09
• [Presentation] Sustainable Resource Reuse and Recycle for Global Product and Production (2009)
  • Author(s): Fumihiko Kimura
  • Organizer: 6th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
  • Year and Date: 20091207-09
• [Presentation] Modeling the Social Acceptance of Product Remanufacturing (2009)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto
  • Organizer: 6th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
  • Year and Date: 20091207-09
• [Presentation] Sustainable Society Scenario Simulator toward Sustainable Manufacturing (1st Report) - Needs and Approaches to Sustainable Society Scenario Simulation (2009)
  • Author(s): Yasushi Umeda
  • Organizer: 6th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
  • Year and Date: 20091207-09
• [Presentation] 技術と社会イノベーションとの統合的対策のためのMESOレベルの概念提案 (2008)
  • Author(s): 藤本淳
  • Organizer: エコデザイン2008 ジャパンシンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 20081211-12
• [Presentation] 企業・消費者・政府をアクターとする循環型社会シミュレーションモデル構築の検討 (2008)
  • Author(s): 松本光崇
  • Organizer: エコデザイン2008 ジャパンシンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 20081211-12
• [Book] 2-1 Framework of future vision, scenario and roadmap, In T. Morioka, K. Hanaki, Y. Moriguchi (eds.), Establishing a Resource-Circulating Society in Asia: Challenges and Opportunities (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasushi Umeda and Yusuke Kishita
  • Total Pages: 464(22-36)
  • Publisher: United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris
• [Book] Design for Innovative Value Towards a Sustainable Society, Proc. of EcoDesign 2011: 7th Int. Symp. on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing (2011)
  • Author(s): Mitsutaka Matsumoto, Yasushi Umeda, Keijiro Masui, Shinichi Fukushige
  • Total Pages: 1195
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Remarks] 3S Simulator Home Page
  • URL: http://www-lce.mech.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp/3s/
• [Remarks] 3Sシミュレータの一部を公開しており、ユーザも獲得している。
• [Remarks] エコデザイン 2008 ジャパンシンポジウム、EcoDesign2009 国際シンポジウム、EcoDesign2011 国際シンポジウムにおいて、本研究プロジェクトの成果公開、3S コンソーシアムの活動を兼ねて、オーガナイズドセッション「Designing Sustainable Society」 (2008, 2009) 、「Envisioning and Designing Sustainable Manufacturing Industry」(2011)を開催した。