2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Ex-post evaluation of transportation infrastructure investments using a causal inference approach
| Project/Area Number |
20H02274
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
多々納 裕一 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20207038)
瀬谷 創 神戸大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (20584296)
小池 淳司 神戸大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (60262747)
大平 悠季 東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (60777994)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | ストック効果 / 交通基盤整備 / 統計的因果推論 / EBPM |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
To establish a management cycle of infrastructure development, the improvement of ex-post evaluation is an important issue. In this study, we develop a method for measuring transportation infrastructure stock effect based on the statistical causal inference approach and examine its application to ex-post evaluation. First, through a comprehensive review of related studies, we summarize the issues for the establishment of stock effect measurement methods. Then, we propose a causal effect estimation method based on the instrumental variable approach for the development of Japan's expressway network. In addition, we focus on the spatial extent and heterogeneity of the stock effect, and develop and improve estimation methods based on the difference-in-differences approach. Finally, we organize and systematize our findings toward the realization of evidence-based ex-post evaluation.
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| Free Research Field |
土木計画学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
国土交通行政においては費用便益分析の実施が制度化され，事業効果の定量的評価が従前より行われてきたものの，完了後に実際に発現した効果について計測し，事後的に検証する作業はこれまで十分には行われてこなかった．政策効果の最大化に向けては，統計等データを用いた事実・課題の把握，政策効果の予測・測定・評価による政策の改善といったマネジメントサイクルの確立が必要である．本研究の成果は，インフラ・ストック効果の計測技術の向上をもたらす上，事後評価の充実を通じて交通インフラ整備のマネジメントサイクルの確立に大きく貢献するものであり，学術的にも社会的にも大きな意義を持つ．
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