2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Development of Casualty Prediction Model and Disaster Mitigation Strategies for Earthquake-Tsunami Combined Disasters in severe winter

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	20H02403
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research Institution	Hokkaido University
Principal Investigator	NAKASHIMA TADAYOSHI 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 准教授 (60557841)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	竹内慎一地方独立行政法人北海道立総合研究機構, 建築研究本部北方建築総合研究所, 主査 (30462344) 小山真紀岐阜大学, 流域圏科学研究センター, 准教授 (70462942) 和藤幸弘金沢医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (90211680) 麻里哲広前橋工科大学, 工学部, 教授 (90250472)
Project Period (FY)	2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Keywords	地震 / 津波 / 複合災害 / 人的被害 / 厳冬期 / 低体温症 / 耐震改修 / 避難ビル
Outline of Final Research Achievements	This study constructed a damage degree function that can be applied to snow loads in different regions.　In addition, taking into account that hypothermia and freezing to death occur at temperatures below 10°C, we constructed an evaluation equation for hypothermia that can take into account the time required for loss of action or death due to hypothermia under the relevant environment.　The number of building damage, human casualties, and trapped persons and the time required for rescue were calculated by applying a damage function that takes snow accumulation into account to several districts in Hokkaido, Japan, where snow accumulation differs. As a result, it was found that the number of building damages, human casualties, and the number of people trapped in buildings increased significantly during the severe winter season.
Free Research Field	都市防災
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	本研究は、これまでわが国では評価できなかった冬季の地震・津波の被害予測をはじめて可能としたことに学術的、社会的意義を有している。特に、低体温症に関する評価式は現在北海道において大きな問題となっている災害時の低体温症問題への減災対策を考えることが可能な式となっている。また、本研究で作成された評価式は北海道の被害想定においてすでに利用されており、本研究の重要性を示している一つの事例といえる。