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2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Estimation of mortality probability distribution for natural forests

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 21780142
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Forest science
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

HIROSHIMA Takuya  The University of Tokyo, 大学院・農学生命科学研究科, 講師 (40302591)

Project Period (FY) 2009 – 2010
Keywords森林管理 / 政策
Research Abstract

The purpose of this study was to estimate a probability distribution of tree mortality and conduct yield prediction on a stand scale based on empirical data of tree age structure in a natural forest. Study area was the natural stand dominated by fir, hemlock and oak in size of 0.259 ha in the University of Tokyo Chiba Forest, Japan. First, tree age data were collected from trees with DBH≧5 cm using a RESISTOGRAPH. Tree ages were associated with the observation data as to number of dead trees and living trees by age class in the period from 1999 to 2008. Second, the probability density function was estimated by the maximum likelihood method for censored survival data. Finally, number of harvestable dead trees was predicted based on the estimated probability density function in the next 10 year period. The results showed that the mean age classes of dead trees and mortality probability distribution were 2.13 and 10.7 which implicated target stand was still young in succession midway. The results also showed that totally 71 trees were predicted to die and to be harvestable. In timber cruising, the information of age should be converted to that of diameter using the age-diameter regression functions for practical use. The suggested method showed a new approach to recognition of succession stage and prediction of yields in natural forests.

  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2011 2010 Other

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 85年生二次林における樹木の胸高年輪数の解析2011

    • Author(s)
      廣嶋卓也
    • Journal Title

      関東森林研究 62巻 印刷中

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of tree mortality probability and prediction of yields on a stand scale in a natural forest

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshima T
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Forest Research in press

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 85年生二次林における樹木の胸高年輪数の解析2010

    • Author(s)
      廣嶋卓也
    • Organizer
      日本森林学会関東支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      宇都宮
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-22
  • [Remarks] ホームページ等なし

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Published: 2012-02-13   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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