2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of a model for estimating health/economic damages from pandemic and the effect of public-immunity resilience program
| Project/Area Number |
21H01453
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
高野 裕久 京都大学, 地球環境学堂, 研究員 (60281698)
宮沢 孝幸 京都大学, ウイルス・再生医科学研究所, 准教授 (80282705)
川端 祐一郎 京都大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (80814996)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 公衆衛生 / 強靭化 / レジリエンス / 財政出動 / 新型コロナウイルス / パンデミック / COVID-19 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study analyzed the impact of measures such as infrastructure investment, compensation for economic losses, and behavioral restrictions on health and economic damage under a pandemic. The results revealed that while the effectiveness of regulations such as "State of Emergency" in preventing infection cannot be denied, it is unclear compared to the negative effects on the economy. The government's financial support to the public has the effect of promoting behavioral restrictions while simultaneously improving the macroeconomy. Furthermore, considering that investment in transportation infrastructure promotes population dispersion and investment in medical resources prevents medical shortages, it can be said that the importance of the role played by "government fiscal spending" in strengthening public health resilience has become clear.
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| Free Research Field |
土木計画学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
パンデミック下における行動制限措置には、感染の拡大を防止する効果が期待される一方で、経済に与える大きな負の効果が予想され、政策当局はトレードオフに直面してきた。短期的には、このトレードオフの下でバランスの取れた政策を実行ことが求められる一方、長期的には、医療資源への投資や人口の分散化等を通じて、トレードオフそのものを緩和する必要もある。こうした問題に関して実証的知見が不足していたところ、本研究において政府補償やインフラ投資の重要性等が示され、将来のパンデミックに備え合理的な意思決定を支援するための一定程度有用な知見が得られたと言える。
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