Devloping assessment system of integrated flood risk management by integrating hydarulic engineering and urban planning approaches

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K18747
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 22:Civil engineering and related fields
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Tanaka Tomohiro 京都大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (20793798)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 市川 温 京都大学, 経営管理研究部, 教授 (30293963) ; 横松 宗太 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (60335502)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-07-09 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 流域治水 / 立地適正化 / 立地選択 / マルチエージェントモデル / 洪水リスク

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a model of flood occurrence and site selection that can evaluate river and urban planning measures based on an agent model for the purpose of comprehensive flood control measures. In order to evaluate the impact of location guidance measures on residents' location selection behavior during normal times, we proposed an amenity index based on the public transportation amenity, and constructed an agent model to simulate residents' migration behavior over time, taking into account the impact of differences in attractiveness of each town on their location selection behavior. Multiple location inducement scenario analyses were conducted, taking into account the spatial distribution of flood risk based on flood inundation simulations, indicating that developing low flood risk and low transportation accessibility areas is effective in reducing long-term flood risk for residents, including those in low-income areas.

Free Research Field

水文学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究成果は，水工学と都市計画学の融合によって気候・河川・社会の長期的な変化を陽的に考慮して洪水リスクの時間変化を推定する枠組みを初めて構築することに成功した．特に，社会や人口分布が固定であることを前提とした従来の治水事業評価手法の枠組みを脱却し，水工学分野で経済モデルを用いた洪水リスク評価という新しい潮流を生む可能性がある．さらに，国土交通省が社会資本整備審議会の答申「気候変動を踏まえた水災害対策のあり方」で掲げる「総合的治水対策」を定量的に評価できる可能性がある点で大きな社会的波及効果が期待できる．