2022 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Identification and Separation of Volcanic and Natural Climate Variability Signals
| Project/Area Number |
22F32012
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
藤原 正智 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 教授 (00360941)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
DOGAR MUHAMMAD 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究科(研究院), 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-07-27 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | climate / volcanic eruption / climate modeling / numerical experiments / El Nino / Southern Oscillation |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
We have published one paper in a reputed peer-reviewed scientific journal (i.e., Earth Systems and Environment), which is a review of past studies on the El Nino Southern Oscillation linkage to strong volcanic eruptions and post-volcanic winter warming. Moreover, Dr. Dogar attended American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2022 and presented two posters.
Dr. Dogar has conducted ensemble numerical experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) using Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility. Dr. Dogar has analyzed the output of the completed GFDL-CM2.1 model ensemble experiments along with the comparison/validation of model results with observational and reanalysis data.
This work will provide a comprehensive description, understanding, and prediction of volcanic and natural variability signals, which is still lacking. In particular, it will help understand the circulation response to large tropical and high latitude eruptions, the importance played by the initial state of the ocean and the atmosphere at the time of the eruption, and provide key insights on the stability of the teleconnection in the climate system.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The proposed research project is successfully ongoing as per the proposed plan. As written above, Dr. Dogar has conducted ensemble numerical experiments with the GFDL-CM2.1 climate model, and has analyzed the output. Implementation of the mathematical and statistical data analysis on the model output is also undergoing. After completion of the remaining set of modeling experiments, we will draft the manuscripts on the proposed research that will be submitted for publication to a suitable scientific journal.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The proposed research project on the link between volcanic activity, ENSO, and high-latitude winter warming will be completed by the end of current fiscal year. This will be accomplished in three phases. Each phase consists of a period of approximately four months. In the first phase, we plan to conduct additional coupled model experiments using the GFDL-CM2.1 model in addition to the analysis of the simulations already performed. In the second stage, two manuscripts will be written and submitted to the appropriate peer-reviewed scientific journals. In the last phase, a final report will be prepared and the research results will be presented at international workshops/conferences (e.g., AGU, EGU, ICTP-Workshop, etc.).
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