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2016 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24223003
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

渡辺 努  東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (90313444)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 青木 浩介  東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (30263362)
Project Period (FY) 2012-05-31 – 2017-03-31
Keywordsマクロ経済学 / デフレーション / 金融政策
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

12本の論文を作成しNBER(全米経済研究所)主催Japan Project Meetingや国連主催Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices等様々な場で報告を行った。
重要なトピックはデフレ期において価格の硬直化が起きた仕組みに関するもので、Asian Economic Policy Reviewが開催した国際会議で報告を行った(“Price Rigidity at Near Zero Inflation Rates”)。ゼロインフレの近傍で価格が硬直化する要因としては、(1)トレンドインフレの低下に伴って企業が価格据え置きを選択する度合いが強まる、(2)ゼロインフレが長く続くことにより価格に関する社会規範(ノルム)が変化する、という2つの理由が考えられる。この論文では、日本を含む8か国の品目別物価上昇率の分布の形状を調べることにより上記2つの要因を識別するという手法を新たに考案した。その上で、日本では90年代末に価格に関するノルムが著しく変化し、それが日本特有の価格硬直化をもたらしたことを明らかにした。本研究は、価格に関するノルムの変化が長期デフレの原因であることを示唆している。
また、今年度は5年間の研究成果を書籍として出版した(『慢性デフレ 真因の解明』日本経済新聞出版社)。大恐慌以来、起きたことのない政策金利ゼロという現象が再び日本をはじめとする先進国で起こったのは何故かという問いを立て、①物価上昇率と失業率の関係を表すフィリップス曲線の平坦化、②消費者物価の計測誤差、③スーパーの店頭における特売の頻度の変化、④名目賃金の伸縮性の変化、⑤家計間の物価格差、⑥為替の変化が物価に転嫁される度合いの変化、という6つの視点から分析を行った。この分析結果は内閣府や日本銀行等政策当局者の注目を集めた。

Research Progress Status

28年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

28年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

  • Research Products

    (59 results)

All 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (28 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 11 results,  Open Access: 14 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 9 results) Presentation (24 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 22 results,  Invited: 9 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of British Columbia(カナダ)

    • Country Name
      CANADA
    • Counterpart Institution
      University of British Columbia
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Columbia University/Dartmouth College(米国)

    • Country Name
      U.S.A.
    • Counterpart Institution
      Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Columbia University/Dartmouth College
    • # of Other Institutions
      1
  • [Int'l Joint Research] European Central Bank(ドイツ)

    • Country Name
      GERMANY
    • Counterpart Institution
      European Central Bank
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Imperial College(英国)

    • Country Name
      UNITED KINGDOM
    • Counterpart Institution
      Imperial College
  • [Journal Article] Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades2017

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe, Kota Watanabe, Kozo Ueda, Nao Sudo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 印刷中

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Price Rigidity at Near-Zero Inflation Rates: Evidence from Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Kota Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 94 Pages: 1-33

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Structural Reform, Innovation and Economic Growth2017

    • Author(s)
      Kosuke Aoki, Naoko Hara, Maiko Koga
    • Journal Title

      Bank of Japan Working Paper

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 印刷中

    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] サーベイ調査におけるインフレ期待の不確実性の計測に関する一考察2017

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人, 上野有子
    • Journal Title

      経済研究

      Volume: 68(1) Pages: 64-83

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of the Entry and Exit of Products on Price Indexes2017

    • Author(s)
      Naohito Abe, Akiyuki Tonogi
    • Journal Title

      RCESR Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: DP17-2 Pages: 1-39

    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 国際競争がサービス業の賃金を抑えたのか2017

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      人手不足なのになぜ賃金が上がらないのか

      Volume: 10 Pages: 印刷中

  • [Journal Article] Extracting fiscal policy expectations from a cross section of daily stock returns2017

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 95 Pages: 1-28

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The Optimum Quantity of Debt for Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Tomoyuki Nakajima, Shuhei Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 93 Pages: 1-19

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The Effectiveness of Consumption Taxes and Transfers as Insurance against Idiosyncratic Risk2017

    • Author(s)
      Tomoyuki Nakajima, Shuhei Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 92 Pages: 1-44

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: 49 Pages: 171-185

    • DOI

      10.1111/jmcb.12378

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Yauo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi, Willem Van Zandweghe
    • Journal Title

      Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Papers

      Volume: 17-1 Pages: 1-29

    • DOI

      10.18651/RWP2017-01

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Product Turnover and Deflation: Evidence from Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 91 Pages: 1-41

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Relationship between Population Density and Migration2016

    • Author(s)
      Shouji Fujimoto , Takayuki Mizuno, Takaaki Ohnishi
    • Journal Title

      Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review

      Volume: - Pages: 1-14

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-016-0064-z

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Who buys what, where: Reconstruction of the international trade flows by commodity and industry2016

    • Author(s)
      Yuichi Ikeda, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 89 Pages: 1-12

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The gradual evolution of buyer-seller networks and their role in aggregate fluctuations2016

    • Author(s)
      Ryohei Hisano, Tsutomu Watanabe, Takayuki Mizuno, Takaaki Ohnishi, and Didier Sornette
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 86 Pages: 1-17

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence From Japan's Deflation Experience2016

    • Author(s)
      Jess Diamond, Kota Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 85 Pages: 1-49

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Power Laws in Market Capitalization During the Dot-com and Shanghai Bubble Periods2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe, Takayuki Mizuno, Takaaki Ohnishi
    • Journal Title

      Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review

      Volume: Volume 13, Issue 2 Pages: 445-454

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-016-0057-y

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] House Prices at Different Stages of the Buying/Selling Process2016

    • Author(s)
      Chihiro Shimizu, Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Regional Science and Urban Economics

      Volume: Volume 59 Pages: 37-53

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.04.001

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Long-term Firm Growth Properties Derived From Short-term Laws of Sales and the Number of Employees2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe, Atushi Ishikawa, Shoji Fujimoto, Takayuki Mizuno
    • Journal Title

      Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review

      Volume: Volume 13, Issue 2 Pages: 409-422

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-016-0055-0

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] POSデータからみた生計費指数と物価指数─2016

    • Author(s)
      阿部修人, 稲倉典子, 遠田敏生, 外木暁幸
    • Journal Title

      現代経済学の潮流2016

      Volume: 5章 Pages: 139-163

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ゼロ金利下における日本の信用創造2016

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      現代経済学の潮流2016

      Volume: 2章 Pages: 37-73

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 石川賞10周年パネル 日本の経済問題と経済学2016

    • Author(s)
      玄田有史・大竹文雄・岩本康志・澤田康幸・大橋弘・塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      現代経済学の潮流2016

      Volume: 7章 Pages: 201-245

  • [Journal Article] 為替レートのパススルー2016

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      経済セミナー

      Volume: 8.9月号 Pages: 39-44

  • [Journal Article] 為替レート・輸入品価格の影響力の復権?外的ショックの時系列VAR分析2016

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      慢性デフレ 真因の解明』

      Volume: 5 Pages: 141-171

  • [Journal Article] 日次・週次データを活用した経済分析への期待:ガソリン価格の例から2016

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      NOWCAST社,NOWCASTATSマンスリーレポート

      Volume: 2016/11月号 Pages: 5-7

  • [Journal Article] 付加価値生産性と部門間労働配分2016

    • Author(s)
      塩路悦朗
    • Journal Title

      内閣府経済社会総合研究所『経済分析』

      Volume: 191号 Pages: 63-93

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model2016

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose, Atsushi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Econometrics

      Volume: 31 Pages: 630-651

    • DOI

      10.1002/jae.2447

    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A Double-Counting Problem in the Theory of Rational Bubble2016

    • Author(s)
      戸村 肇
    • Journal Title

      Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan, Working Paper Series

      Volume: 84 Pages: 1-10

    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 法貨と中央銀行2017

    • Author(s)
      戸村肇
    • Organizer
      東京大学金融教育研究センター・NIRA総合研究開発機構共催コンファレンス「貨幣・決済の未来とブロックチェーンの進展」
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京都文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-21
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Deflation and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix: Evidence from Japan in 2012-2017 and US in the 1930s2017

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Japan Economic Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      コロンビア大学 ニューヨーク(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-10
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Extracting fiscal policy expectations from daily stock returns2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2016)
    • Place of Presentation
      Higher Technical School of Engineering, University of Seville セビリア(スペイン)
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-11
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Long-term interest rates and bank loan supply: Evidence from firm-bank loan-level data2016

    • Author(s)
      Kosuke Aoki, Arito Ono
    • Organizer
      第18回マクロコンファレンス
    • Place of Presentation
      ホテル阪急エキスポパーク(大阪府吹田市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-26
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 決済システムにおける中央銀行の役割:法定通貨からの視点2016

    • Author(s)
      戸村肇
    • Organizer
      東京大学金融教育研究センター・日本銀行決済機構局共催コンファレンス「フィンテックと貨幣の将来像」
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京都文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-18
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japan's Deflation Experience2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Bank of Korea workshop on monetary policy
    • Place of Presentation
      Bank of Korea ソウル市(韓国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-17
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Price Rigidity during Japan's Deflationary Period: Causes and Consequences2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Bank of Korea workshop on monetary policy
    • Place of Presentation
      Bank of Korea ソウル市(韓国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-17
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Escaping from Deflation: Evidence from Japan in 2012-2016 and US in the 1930s2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century
    • Place of Presentation
      Prince Hotel Karuizawa West (長野県軽井沢町)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-28 – 2016-10-30
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Quantitative 'Flooding' and Bank Lending: Evidence from 14 Years of Near-Zero Interest Rate2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Organizer
      31st Annual Congress of the European Economic Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Geneva School of Economics and Management ジュネーブ(スイス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-24
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Quantitative 'Flooding' and Bank Lending: Evidence from 14 Years of Near-Zero Interest Rate2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Organizer
      The 2016 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学 (京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-11
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumption Taxes and Divisibility of Labor under Incomplete Markets2016

    • Author(s)
      Shuhei Takahashi
    • Organizer
      2016 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-11
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Payment instruments and collateral in the interbank payment system2016

    • Author(s)
      戸村肇
    • Organizer
      Econometric Society Asian Meetings
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学(京都府京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-04
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japan's Deflation Experience2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      the NBER Japan Project Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Asian Development Bank Institute (東京都千代田区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-01
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Consumption Taxes and Divisibility of Labor under Incomplete Markets2016

    • Author(s)
      Shuhei Takahashi
    • Organizer
      Society for Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Toulouse School of Economics, Toulouse(フランス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-30
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?2016

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Mercure Hotel Chateau Chartrons ボルドー(フランス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-28
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?2016

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose
    • Organizer
      International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Milan-Bicocca ミラノ(イタリア)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-24
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumption Taxes and Divisibility of Labor under Incomplete Markets2016

    • Author(s)
      Shuhei Takahashi
    • Organizer
      2016 Taipei International Conference on Growth, Trade, and Dynamics
    • Place of Presentation
      Academia Sinica Taipei (台湾)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-23
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Long-term interest rates and bank loan supply: Evidence from firm-bank loan-level data2016

    • Author(s)
      Arito Ono
    • Organizer
      5th MoFiR Workshop on Banking
    • Place of Presentation
      DePaul University, Chicago(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-09
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A theory of nonperforming loans and debt restructuring2016

    • Author(s)
      Tomoyuki Nakajima
    • Organizer
      CIGS Conference on Macroeconomic Theory and Policy
    • Place of Presentation
      キャノングローバル戦略研究所(東京都千代田区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-30
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Extracting fiscal policy expectations from daily stock returns2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Organizer
      Time Series Workshop on Macro and Financial Economics
    • Place of Presentation
      成均館大学 ソウル市 (韓国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-21
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumption Taxes and Divisibility of Labor under Incomplete Markets2016

    • Author(s)
      Shuhei Takahashi
    • Organizer
      Midwest Macro Meetings Spring 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Purdue University (West Lafayette, Indiana (アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-21
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Quantitative 'Flooding' and Bank Lending: Evidence from 14 Years of Near-Zero Interest Rate2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuro Shioji
    • Organizer
      Korea University's Money/Macro seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      高麗大学 ソウル市 (韓国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-18
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating Consumer Price Inflation By Household2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      The Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices
    • Place of Presentation
      Palais des Nations, Geneva(スイス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-03
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Measuring Inflation By Company Using Scanner Data2016

    • Author(s)
      Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Organizer
      The Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices
    • Place of Presentation
      Palais des Nations, Geneva(スイス)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-02
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Book] 慢性デフレ 真因の解明2016

    • Author(s)
      渡辺努編著
    • Total Pages
      240
    • Publisher
      日本経済新聞出版社
  • [Remarks] 「長期デフレの解明」プロジェクト

    • URL

      http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

  • [Remarks] 東大日次物価指数プロジェクト

    • URL

      http://www.cmdlab.co.jp/price_u-tokyo/

URL: 

Published: 2018-01-16   Modified: 2022-01-31  

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