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2016 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

Structure and Dynamics of Cyclones that Cause Tornadoes and Severe Gusty Winds

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24244074
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

新野 宏  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (90272525)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 柳瀬 亘  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 助教 (80376540)
Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Keywords竜巻 / スーパーセル / 熱帯低気圧 / 温帯低気圧 / 積乱雲 / 突風 / 階層構造
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

客観解析データを用いたコンポジット解析により、我が国で竜巻を生じた温帯低気圧(温低)と生じなかった温低の構造の違いを明らかにするとともに、米国で竜巻を生ずる温低と比較し、日米の竜巻を生ずる温低の構造の違いを明らかにした。竜巻と竜巻を生ずる特殊な積乱雲(スーパーセル)の環境場では対流有効位置エネルギー(CAPE)とストームに相対的な環境風のヘリシティ(SREH: Storm-Relative Environmental Helicity)という2つのパラメータが大きいことが知られているが、日本で竜巻を生ずる温低の暖域におけるCAPEとSREHは、共に米国よりも小さいことがわかった。この違いは日本が海洋に囲まれた島である一方、米国は内陸の陸面上に位置するため、米国では日射による陸面の加熱によりCAPEが大きく、また陸面は海面よりも粗度が大きいため大気下層の鉛直シアが大きくなることによる。このことは、米国では藤田スケールでF4,F5という激しい竜巻が発生するが、日本ではこれまで発生していないことを説明する可能性がある。
これ以外にも、(1)台風に伴う竜巻の分布を良く説明する「環境場の空気の取り込みを考慮したCAPE(E-CAPE: Entraining CAPE)」の計算に必要なスーパーセルの高解像度数値実験を行い、適切なエントレインメント率を推定した。(2)米国で竜巻のポテンシャルの推定に使われている環境パラメータのうち、CAPEを含むものについて、CAPEをE-CAPEに置き換えると、竜巻の発生分布をより良く説明する可能性に関する示唆を得た。(3)海上の弱い低気圧に伴ってメソβスケールの渦が発生し、その中で竜巻状の突風が生じて、船舶の遭難事故が起きた事例について数値モデルでの再現に成功し、メソβスケール渦と竜巻の生成機構と低気圧に伴う突風現象の階層構造を明らかにした。

Research Progress Status

28年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

28年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

  • Research Products

    (39 results)

All 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (32 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 18 results,  Invited: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Composite analysis of polar mesocyclones over the western part of the Sea of Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S.I., H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 146 Pages: 985-1004

    • DOI

      10.1175/MWR-D-17-0107.1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Environmental control of tropical, subtropical, and extratropical cyclone development on the North Atlantic Ocean: Idealized numerical experiments2018

    • Author(s)
      Yanase, W., and H. Niino
    • Journal Title

      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

      Volume: 144 Pages: 539-552

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3227

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Important factors for tornadogenesis as revealed by high-resolution ensemble forecasts of the Tsukuba supercell tornado of 6 May 2012 in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S, H. Niino, H. Seko,M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 146 Pages: 1109-1132

    • DOI

      10.1175/MWR-D-17-0254.1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Structure and environment of tornado-spawning extratropical cyclones around Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E. and H. Niino
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 印刷中

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2018-043

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Structure and environment of polar mesocyclones over the northeastern part of the Sea of Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S.I., H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 145 Pages: 2217-2233

    • DOI

      10.1175/MWR-D-16-0342.1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Super High-Resolution Simulation of the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba Supercell Tornado: Near-Surface Structure and Its Dynamics2017

    • Author(s)
      Mashiko, W., and H. Niino
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 13 Pages: 135-139

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2017-025

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 複数同時発生する竜巻をもたらす温帯低気圧と梅雨前線上の低気圧2017

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍
    • Journal Title

      日本風工学会誌

      Volume: 42 Pages: 23-30

    • DOI

      10.5359/jawe.42.23

    • Open Access
  • [Presentation] Numerical Simulations of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices.2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      15th Annual Meeting of Asia Oceania Geoscience Society
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 2015年9月1日に対馬海峡で突風を生じた メソβスケール渦のアンサンブル実験2018

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、横田祥、新野宏、柳瀬亘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度春季大会
  • [Presentation] Fine-scale Structures of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Cause Tornado-like Vortices2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      Japan Geosecience Union-American Geophysical Union Annal meeting
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Understanding Tornadoes: A Challenge in Meteorology2018

    • Author(s)
      Niino, H.
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Wind-Related Disasters and Mitigation
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Idealized experiments on tropical, subtropical and extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic Ocean in Autumn.2017

    • Author(s)
      Yanase, W. and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      18th Cyclone Workshop
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Multi-Scale Structure of Meso-Beta-Scale Vortex Associated with a Maritime Extratropical Cyclone2017

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      18th Cyclone Workshop
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Structure and Environment of Polar Meso-cyclones over the Sea of Japan: Composite Analysis and Numerical Experiments2017

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S.I., H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      17th Conference on Mesoscale Processes
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Multi-scale Structure of Meso-beta-scale Vortex Associated with a Maritime Extratropical Cyclone: A Numerical Study2017

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      17th Conference on Mesoscale Processes
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tornado-like Vortices in a Meso-β-scale Vortex Associated with a Maritime Extratropical Cyclone: A Numerical Study2017

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      9th European Conference on Severe Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 竜巻の環境場におけるEntrainment を考慮したCAPE の有効性 -温帯低気圧に伴う竜巻大発生における検証―2017

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、末木健太、新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
  • [Presentation] 2015 年9 月1 日対馬海峡で突風を生じたメソβ スケール渦の発生・発達機構2017

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、横田祥、新野宏、柳瀬亘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
  • [Presentation] Multi-scale Structure of A Meso-beta-scale Vortex that Caused Sudden Gusty Winds Over the Sea of Japan:A Case Study on 1 September 20152017

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      Japan Geosecience Union-American Geophysical Union Joint meeting
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Japanese Enhanced Fujita Scale: Its Development and Implementation2017

    • Author(s)
      Niino, H. , Y. Tamura, M. Ito, H. Kikitsu, J. Maeda, Y. Okuda, H. Sakata, Y. Shoji, S. Suzuki, and Y. Tanaka
    • Organizer
      9th European Conference on Severe Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Entrainment rate of typhoon-associated supercells estimated by a large eddy simulation2017

    • Author(s)
      Sueki, K., and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      9th European Conference on Severe Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tornadogenesis as revealed by high-resolution ensemble forecasts for the Tsukuba city supercell tornado on 6 May 20122017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Large Eddy Simulationによるスーパーセルのエントレインメント率の推定,2017

    • Author(s)
      末木健太, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
  • [Presentation] Structural and environmental characteristics of extratropical cyclones that cause tornado outbreaks in the warm sector2016

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E. and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      European General Assembly
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] High-resolution ensemble experiments for the Tsukuba city supercell tornado in Japan on 6 May 20122016

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
  • [Presentation] Structure and Environment of Tornado-Spawning Extratropical Cyclones around Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E. and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Mesoscale Vortex that Caused Marine Accidents due to a Sudden Gusty Wind in the Southwestern Part of the Sea of Japan on 1 September 20152016

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consideration of data assimilation for forecasting tornadoes using high-resolution ensemble forecasts2016

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      RIKEN International Symposium on Data Assimilation / The 7th Japanese Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 竜巻を生ずる温帯低気圧の構造と環境場2016

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
  • [Presentation] Importance of entraining CAPE for assessing the tornado potential in typhoons and an exploration of appropriate entrainment rates for supercells in the typhoon environmen2016

    • Author(s)
      Sueki, K., and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 台風環境下で発生するスーパーセルのエントレインメントを調べる理想化数値実験2016

    • Author(s)
      末木健太, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
  • [Presentation] 台風のSREH2016

    • Author(s)
      末木健太, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会第3回メソ気象セミナー
  • [Presentation] Composite analysis and numerical simulation on polar mesocyclones over the Sea of Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S.I., and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      13th European Polar Lows Working Group (EPLWG) Workshop
  • [Presentation] An idealized numerical experiment of Japan sea polar air mass convergence zone2016

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S.I., and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      The 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models
  • [Presentation] 冬季日本海上でできる収束雲の理想化実験2016

    • Author(s)
      渡邉俊一,新野宏
    • Organizer
      東京大学大気海洋研究所国際沿岸研究センター共同利用研究集会「東西・南北・上下から見た日本の気象と気候」
  • [Presentation] Development and Implementation of Japanese Enhanced Fujita Scale2016

    • Author(s)
      Tamura, Y., H. Niino, M. Ito, H. Kikitsu, J. Maeda, Y. Okuda, H. Sakata, Y. Shoji, S. Suzuki, and Y. Tanaka
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] メソアンサンブル予報を利用した顕著現象の解析2016

    • Author(s)
      國井勝, 横田祥
    • Organizer
      第9回気象庁数値モデル研究会・第44回メソ気象研究会・ 第2回観測システム予測可能性研究連絡会
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 超高解像度アンサンブル実験による竜巻と下層メソサイクロンの関係2016

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
  • [Presentation] 竜巻を発生させた積乱雲群の再現-アンサンブル予測を用いた竜巻の発生要因の解明-2016

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      環境研究シンポジウム

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Published: 2018-12-17  

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