Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24510014
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (2014-2015); Nagoya University (2012-2013)
• Principal Investigator: SATO Hisashi 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球表層物質循環研究分野, 研究員 (50392965)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): KOBAYASHI Hideki 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球表層物質循環研究分野, 主任研究員 (10392961)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 東シベリア / カラマツ林 / 永久凍土 / 生態系シミュレーション / 動的全球植生モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The larch forest in eastern Siberia is the world’s largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near-surface permafrost, and thus forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near-surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia.
Here, we developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology, and it satisfactorily reconstructs latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch-dominated area in eastern Siberia. The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century.

Free Research Field

植物生態学