Spatio-Temporal distribution of infection-causing vectors under future changing climate

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24510020
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Ohta Shunji 早稲田大学, 人間科学学術院, 教授 (10288045)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 環境変動 / 生物・環境モデル / 地球温暖化 / 生態系影響評価 / 健康影響評価 / 熱収支気候学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

First, a coupled model with ecophysiological and climatological factors was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the species of dominant malaria vectors (Anopheles spp.) in monsoon Asia, using simple climate data. Then, we examined how the potential distribution obtained from the model could explain trends in malaria incidence observed in India, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of malaria in Asia. As a result, it was found that malaria incidence tended to increase exponentially as vector generation number increased. In addition, the observed seasonal peak of malaria incidences corresponded closely to the simulated appearance period of vector species, except for intensively irrigated areas that experience anthropogenic impacts on hydrologic conditions. Therefore, a new, modified model that includes irrigation as a factor was developed to predict the active growing period of mosquitoes more precisely than the base.

Free Research Field

環境科学