2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
To what extent will typhoons intensify? -Assessing typhoon hazards under worst-case scenarios
| Project/Area Number |
24651207
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
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| Keywords | 台風 / 気象災害 / 風水害 / 気象予報モデル / 自然災害影響評価 / 物理ダウンスケール / 最大可能強度 / 最悪シナリオ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
“To what extent will typhoon become strong, and to what extent will the typhoon hazard become worse?” In order to answer this question, this study investigated the natural hazards due to typhoons by conducting numerical simulations of past extreme typhoons under their environmental conditions. In addition to simulating the existing typhoons under real condition, we performed numerical experiments of typhoons with their track and intensity changed by controlling the initial location of the typhoons and assessed the resulting impacts of the simulated typhoons on the distribution of heavy rain and strong wind. The typhoon cases that spawned severe disasters in the Kanto, the Chubu, and the Kinki District were chosen for the present analyses. Furthermore, Typhoon Haiyan that caused devastating damages in the Philippines in November 2013 was also examined. We assess the natural hazards due to these extreme typhoons by conducting ensembles of numerical simulations.
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| Free Research Field |
気象学
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