Refine statistical models for earthquakes

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25330052
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Zhuang Jiancang 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 准教授 (70465920)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): KATO Shogo 統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 准教授 (60468535) ; OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (70000213) ; KUMAZAWA Takao 統計数理研究所, リスク解析戦略研究センター, 特任研究員 (60649482) ; IWATA Takaki 常磐大学, コミュニティ振興学部, 准教授 (30418991)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: ETASモデル / 確率利得 / 非地震性異常 / 分岐クラックモデル / 重み付き最尤推定量 / 残差分析 / 震源メカニズム / 地震断層形状

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research is carried out in three directions. 1. Theoretic research: The criticality and stability conditions for a type of more general branching process are studied, providing what constraints should be obey when extending the ETAS model; The branching cracking can be used to explain many features of earthquake source ruptures. 2. Seismicity modelling and statistical inference: ETAS models incorporated with earthquake rupture geometry are developed, based on which the rupture geometry can be inverted from seismicity; Earthquake hypocenter depths are incorporated into a 3D high-resolution ETAS model; weighted likelihood estimates for space-time point processes have been proposed. 3. The precursory information in several kinds of non-seismicity anomalies has validated.

Free Research Field

統計科学