Numerical study on diagnosis of environmental factor affecting tropical cyclone intensity

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25400461
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute (2014-2015); The University of Tokyo (2013)
• Principal Investigator: Sawada Masahiro 気象庁気象研究所, 台風研究部, 研究官 (90466524)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): Yamaguchi Munehiko 気象庁気象研究所, 台風研究部, 研究官 (80595405) ; Ito Kosuke 琉球大学, 理学部, 助教 (10634123) ; Miyamoto Yoshiaki 独立行政法人理化学研究所, 計算科学研究機構, 基礎科学特別研究員 (90612185)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 台風 / 防災 / 予測可能性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

To diagnose impacts of environmental factor on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, forecast experiments for 2800 cases have been conducted using coupled hurricane intensity prediction system (CHIPS). Environmental parameter were generated from a forecast data by Japan meteorological agency (JMA) global spectral model (GSM). By comparing the forecast results, CHIPS is lowest errors among three models and the largest correlation coefficient of central pressure tendency. This indicates TC intensity is largely controlled by environmental factor. Through the sensitivity experiments, vertical shear is a largest impact on TC intensity forecast, second is ocean mixed layer depth in a framework of CHIPS. From a point of a practical view, we evaluate the intensity forecast skill of a consensus by above three models. The consensus has comparable or less forecast error than the JMA official forecast, which will contribute the improvement of intensity forecast.

Free Research Field

台風、数値シミュレーション