2013 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

結核とHIVの新グローバル治療戦略の開発に関する研究

Research Project

Project/Area Number	25670294
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
Research Institution	The University of Tokyo
Principal Investigator	スチュアートギルモー東京大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 助教 (20608913)
Project Period (FY)	2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Keywords	疫学 / HIV/AIDS / 数理モデル
Research Abstract	Successfully completed an analysis of prevalence of HIV in 32 sub-Saharan African countries over 11 years, with estimates of proportion of men and women aged 15-49 who have ever been tested for HIV, are aware of their HIV status, and used a condom at last sex. This behavioral and testing data is essential for modeling HIV infection risk. Completed a review of HIV and tuberculosis coinfection models, in order to identify the most appropriate modeling strategy for HIV/TB coinfection. Collaborated with colleagues in Canada to develop a model of risk compensation in recipients of male circumcision in Uganda. This model is important to establish the potential effectiveness of male circumcision as a prevention strategy for HIV, and the role of circumcision in changes to risk factors that would affect HIV transmission.
Current Status of Research Progress	Current Status of Research Progress 2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned. Reason Have completed the process of estimating risk behaviors and prevalence of the major diseases. Have received training in geo-spatial analysis for the incorporation of Bayesian statistical methods into future models. Infrastructure for model-building has been prepared.
Strategy for Future Research Activity	In the next year, results of the initial estimates of HIV prevalence and risk behavior will be submitted for publication. This model of HIV prevalence and risk behavior will be updated with Bayesian small area analysis to give a full map of the prevalence and management of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. Simultaneously, a basic model of HIV/TB coinfection will be developed and tested, and several possible interventions assessed for their effect on future trends in prevalence and incidence of both diseases.
Expenditure Plans for the Next FY Research Funding	Travel expenses came to one day less than expected, and so one day of per diem was left over at the end of the year. This 5359 yen will be incorporated into travel expenses for this fiscal year.