Establishment of mathematical scientific river planning method which capable of responding to the possible maximum flood

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26249072
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Chuo University
• Principal Investigator: Yamada Tadashi 中央大学, 理工学部, 教授 (80111665)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 萬矢 敦啓 国立研究開発法人土木研究所, 土木研究所(つくば中央研究所), 研究員 (00314740) ; 安田 浩保 新潟大学, 災害・復興科学研究所, 准教授 (00399354) ; 藤田 一郎 神戸大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (10127392) ; 山田 朋人 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 准教授 (10554959) ; 清水 義彦 群馬大学, 大学院理工学府, 教授 (70178995) ; 長坂 俊成 立教大学, その他の研究科, 教授 (20338213)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 河川計画 / 可能最大降雨量 / 極値統計理論 / 実河川の流量観測 / 河床波の力学機構 / 画像解析 / 河床形態の変化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We suggested a way of mathematical scientific river planning excluding empirical factors. In conventional river planning, flood control standards such as design high water level are decided deterministically and single-valued, and the detail of river planning are based on these single-valued standards. However, there are uncertainties in hydrological quantities because of the differences in observation methods and their accuracy.
In this research, we suggested a distribution of water level (uncertainty) obtained from extreme value statistical theory and runoff analysis method considering the uncertainty of hydrological quantities, and showed the distribution is extremely useful as a material to decide the timing of evacuation information. In addition, we method to introduce the effect of sediment and the resistance of the river channel shape as uncertainty into river channel design. This kind of mathematical scientific planning method is corresponding to new social awareness.

Free Research Field

水工学