A comparative study between Japan and Sweden: Life course of old-old people and future cost trends of long-term care

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26285137
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Social welfare and social work studies
• Research Institution: Nihon Fukushi University
• Principal Investigator: KURUBE Noriko 日本福祉大学, 福祉経営学部, 教授 (10329766)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): SAITO Yasuhiko 日本大学, 総合科学研究科, 教授 (00277485)
• Research Collaborator: JINNO Naohiko ; LAGERGREN Marten ; THORSLUND Mats ; PARKER Marti
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 高齢者福祉 / 後期高齢者ライフコース

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study was aimed to project the future costs trends of long-term care from 2010 until 2040, and to analyze the life course of old-old people in Japan and Sweden. Regarding the projection of the future cost trends two different scenarios were used: the first scenario based on a constant level of need for LTC by age group and gender, and the other based on a continuation of the present LTC need trends until 2025. For Japan this resulted in a projected cost increase of 93% for the first scenario and 80% for the second scenario. For Sweden the corresponding result was 52% and 24% respectively. The future individual states in terms of death, functional dependency, and level of LTC depends to a large degree on the initial state. 78-year-old persons who have no functional dependency and no LTC have a much higher probability to survive the next 10-15 years compared to people of the same age who already are dependent and in need of LTC services.

Free Research Field

社会福祉学