| Project/Area Number |
11650541
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | Yokohama National University |
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Principal Investigator |
OKURA Izumi Yokohama National University, Faculty of Engineering, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (00013227)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NAKAMURA Fumihiko Yokohama National University, Faculty of Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (70217892)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1999 – 2000
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2000)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
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| Keywords | Road accident / Countermeasures / Effects of measures / Evaluation / Before and after study |
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| Research Abstract |
Various Organizations are vigorously formulating strategies to reduce road traffic accidents. In order to reduce road traffic accidents as much as possible within the confines of limited budgets, there has been an increasing trend in recent years towards more emphasis on evaluating the strategies/measures implemented. This research looks at the status of such evaluations, related problems and methods of resolving those problems. It experiments the application of the Empirical Bayes Method as a solution to the "regression to the means" phenomenon which has been identified as a particular procedural problems, and compares conventional evaluation systems.
To be concrete, the before and after technique, which has been applied for the evaluation on the effects of the road safety measures, contains several problems. The most serious one is the "Regression To the Mean" effect as described above. Although there are some evaluation theories to reduce the estimation bias, they have not been applied adequately in practice. In this study, we examined the Empirical Bayes Method based on collected data actually and specified the problems to be solved when it is applied in practice and propose practical points for some of them when they are used on a practical level.
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